Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) vs 10Y Treasury Yield
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) tracks the Nasdaq 100, tech-heavy growth index. April 2026: QQQ approximately $656; 10Y yield 4.31 percent.
Also known as: Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) (ETF_QQQ, Nasdaq, NDX) · 10Y Treasury Yield (10Y yield, 10 year treasury, TNX)
Why This Comparison Matters
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) tracks the Nasdaq 100, tech-heavy growth index. April 2026: QQQ approximately $656; 10Y yield 4.31 percent. Top weights: Nvidia ~9 percent, Apple ~7.6 percent, Microsoft ~5.7 percent, Broadcom, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Tesla. QQQ heavily weighted toward long-duration growth names. Pre-2024 100bp 10Y rise typically associated with 8-15 percent QQQ decline. The 2024-2026 era saw QQQ rally substantially despite elevated 10Y as AI capex narrative overrode duration drag. NVDA +12x peak-to-peak (2023-2025); hyperscaler AI capex $400B+ annual run-rate. Pair captures whether duration framework or AI capex narrative dominates.
The April 2026 Configuration
QQQ approximately $656 (April 2026). 10Y yield 4.31 percent. QQQ AUM approximately $290 billion (largest tech-heavy ETF). Top weights: NVDA ~9%, AAPL ~7.6%, MSFT ~5.7%, AVGO ~4%, AMZN ~5.5%, META ~4.5%, GOOGL ~4%, TSLA ~3.5%. Combined top 8 ~44%.
QQQ has rallied substantially in 2024-2026: 2024 strong, 2025 strong, 2026 modest gains. NVDA +12x peak-to-peak. AI capex narrative dominant. Dispersion within QQQ: high-growth software (CRWD, DDOG, MELI) +50-100% past 12 months; established tech (AAPL +15%, MSFT +30%); semis (NVDA, AVGO, AMD) substantial gains; AAPL more modest as iPhone cycle stable.
Forward-looking: hyperscaler $400B+ AI capex provides multi-year tailwind. NVDA next earnings May 2026. Big Tech Q1 2026 earnings (April-May) signal capex sustainability. Continued elevated 10Y supports duration framework reassertion if AI capex disappoints.
QQQ vs SPY Composition
QQQ vs SPY composition. QQQ is Nasdaq 100 (top 100 non-financial Nasdaq stocks). Excludes financials (no JPM, BAC, etc.). Includes more growth-oriented exposure. Tech weighting ~50% vs SPY 32%. Communication services + consumer discretionary ~20%. Healthcare ~10%. Industrials ~5%.
Key concentration. NVDA largest weight ~9% (vs SPY ~6%). Higher tech concentration. AAPL ~7.6%. MSFT ~5.7%. AVGO ~4%. AMZN ~5.5%. META ~4.5%. GOOGL ~4%. TSLA ~3.5%. Combined Magnificent 7+ approximately 40%.
The practical implication: QQQ has higher AI capex exposure than SPY. Sustained AI narrative supports QQQ outperformance vs SPY. AI capex disappointment would compress QQQ more than SPY.
Why QQQ Should Be Most Rate-Sensitive Equity Index
QQQ should theoretically be most rate-sensitive equity index due to highest growth-stock concentration. Drivers.
Growth profile: QQQ holdings have longest duration cash flows. Most enterprise value derives from cash flows projected 10-20 years ahead. AI capex cycle 5-15 year payoff horizons.
Multiple expansion: QQQ forward P/E approximately 28x vs SPY 22x. Higher multiple reflects longer-duration cash flows.
Empirical sensitivity (pre-2024): 100bp 10Y rise associated with 8-15 percent QQQ decline (vs SPY 5-8 percent decline; XLK 10-12 percent decline). QQQ 1.5-2x rate sensitivity vs SPY.
2022 hiking illustrated. 10Y rose 1.5 percent to 5.0 percent peak. QQQ fell 36 percent peak-to-trough October 2022 (vs SPY -25 percent). Within QQQ, longest-duration names suffered most: high-growth software -60-75%; established tech -25-35%.
2024-2026 anomaly: AI capex narrative override. QQQ rallied substantially despite elevated 10Y.
How QQQ and 10Y Diverge (2024-2026 Era)
QQQ and 10Y traditionally inversely correlated. The 2024-2026 era weakened the relationship.
Pre-2024 correlation: -0.40 to -0.60. Strong inverse. 100bp 10Y rise = 8-15% QQQ decline.
2024-2026 correlation: weakened to -0.20 to -0.40. AI capex narrative overriding rate sensitivity. 100bp 10Y move now produces 3-7% QQQ response (vs 8-15% pre-2024).
The practical implication: QQQ has dual exposure to (1) duration drag from elevated rates; (2) growth tailwind from AI capex. Net effect during 2024-2026: AI capex dominated.
Watch for: sustained 10Y above 5.5% would test AI capex override; AI capex disappointment from hyperscalers would re-establish duration framework.
How the Pair Performs Through Rate Cycles
2018-2019: 10Y 2.4% to 3.2% (Q4 2018) then 1.5% (mid-2019). QQQ -22% Q4 2018, then +50% through 2019.
2020 COVID: 10Y to 0.5% (March 2020). QQQ -28% peak-to-trough then +95% through 2021.
2022 hiking: 10Y 1.5% to 5.0%. QQQ -36% peak-to-trough October 2022. Classical duration framework worked.
2023 AI awakening: ChatGPT November 2022. NVDA earnings revisions. QQQ +55% in 2023.
2024-2025 AI bull: QQQ +30%+ (NVDA +12x).
2026: QQQ ~$656. 10Y stable. AI narrative continues.
The pattern: pre-2024 duration dominated. 2024-2026 AI capex override.
How the Pair Performs in Stress
2008-09 GFC: QQQ -54% peak-to-trough. 10Y 4.5% to 2.0%. Pre-AI tech still rate-sensitive.
2018 Q4 Fed pivot: QQQ -22%. Classical duration.
2020 COVID flash crash: QQQ -28%. Then +95% through 2021.
2022 hiking: QQQ -36% peak-to-trough October 2022. Classical duration.
2023 SVB: QQQ +5%. Tech benefits from rate fall.
2024-2026 AI era: QQQ rallied substantially.
2026 Iran war: QQQ held near highs. AI immune to geopolitical.
Pattern: pre-2024 duration. 2024-2026 AI override.
Volatility and Trading
QQQ realized volatility approximately 20-28% annualized (vs SPY 13-18%, XLK 18-25%, SMH 28-40%). Beta to SPY ~1.15-1.30.
60-day correlation QQQ-10Y: -0.20 to -0.40 in 2024-2026; pre-2024 -0.40 to -0.60.
QQQ exposure: QQQ ETF (largest tech-heavy ETF, AUM $290B), QQQM (lower-cost share class), TQQQ (3x leveraged). 10Y exposure: TLT or futures.
2022 long TLT / short QQQ gained substantially (QQQ -36%, TLT -50%). 2024-2026 long QQQ / short TLT gained substantially.
Most actionable: NVDA quarterly (Feb, May, Aug, Nov), hyperscaler capex (MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN), AAPL services revenue.
Reading the Pair as a Trading Tool
10Y rising + QQQ rallying: AI capex dominant (current 2024-2026). Long QQQ.
10Y rising + QQQ falling: classical duration. Pre-2024.
10Y falling + QQQ rallying: confirmed bull. Long QQQ + long TLT.
10Y falling + QQQ falling: rare. Demand weakness.
April 2026: 10Y 4.31% + QQQ $656 (near recent highs). AI capex dominant. Long QQQ continues.
Key watches: NVDA May 2026 earnings; Big Tech Q1 2026 (April-May); 10Y trajectory.
How QQQ-vs-10Y Compares to Other Sector-vs-Rates Pairs
QQQ/10Y captures broader tech-heavy growth index. Compared.
Vs XLK/10Y: XLK pure tech sector. QQQ has tech + comm services + consumer discretionary + healthcare. Different exposure.
Vs SMH/10Y: SMH pure semiconductors. Higher AI capex concentration. QQQ broader.
Vs SPY/10Y: SPY broader market. SPY less tech-concentrated than QQQ.
April 2026 reading: 10Y 4.31% + QQQ $656 (AI capex dominant). Pair complements XLK (pure tech), SMH (semis), SPY (broad market).
Forward View: Watch NVDA and Big Tech Earnings
QQQ ~$656 (April 2026). 10Y 4.31%. NVDA ~9% of QQQ; AAPL ~7.6%; MSFT ~5.7%. Hyperscaler $400B+ AI capex run-rate.
Forward: hyperscaler capex sustainability. NVDA May 2026 earnings. Big Tech Q1 2026 (April-May). Continued AI capex narrative supports QQQ.
Key watches: Big Tech Q1 2026 earnings; NVDA results; 10Y trajectory; AAPL services revenue.
Risks: AI capex disappointment compressing tech multiples; 10Y above 5.5% testing override; mega-cap regulatory action.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How 10Y Treasury Yield has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ). Computed from 1,242 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, 10Y Treasury Yield rises 0.83% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.50%. 124 qualifying events; 10Y Treasury Yield closed positive in 54% of them.
Following these triggers, 10Y Treasury Yield rises 0.96% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.50%. 125 qualifying events; 10Y Treasury Yield closed positive in 54% of them.
Past behavior in the tails is descriptive, not predictive. Mean response is the simple arithmetic mean of compounded 5-day forward returns following each trigger event; baseline is the unconditional mean across the full sample window. Edge measures the gap between the two.
90-Day Statistics
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are QQQ and the 10Y Treasury yield?+
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) tracks Nasdaq 100, tech-heavy growth index. April 2026 QQQ ~$656; AUM ~$290 billion (largest tech-heavy ETF). Top weights: NVDA ~9%, AAPL ~7.6%, MSFT ~5.7%, AVGO ~4%, AMZN ~5.5%, META ~4.5%, GOOGL ~4%, TSLA ~3.5% (top 8 ~44%). Magnificent 7+ ~40%. 10Y yield 4.31%. QQQ excludes financials. Tech weighting ~50% vs SPY 32%. QQQ rallied substantially in 2024-2026: NVDA +12x peak-to-peak. AI capex narrative dominant despite elevated 10Y. QQQ realized volatility ~20-28%; beta to SPY ~1.15-1.30.
Why should QQQ be most rate-sensitive equity index?+
Highest growth-stock concentration. Growth profile: longest duration cash flows. Enterprise value 10-20 years ahead. AI capex 5-15 year payoff. Multiple expansion: QQQ forward P/E ~28x vs SPY 22x. Higher multiple reflects longer-duration cash flows. Pre-2024 100bp 10Y rise = 8-15% QQQ decline (vs SPY 5-8%; XLK 10-12%). 1.5-2x rate sensitivity vs SPY. 2022 hiking 10Y 1.5% to 5.0% peak: QQQ -36% peak-to-trough October 2022 (vs SPY -25%). Within QQQ, longest-duration names suffered most: high-growth software -60-75%; established tech -25-35%. 2024-2026 anomaly: AI capex override.
How do QQQ and 10Y diverge in 2024-2026?+
Pre-2024 correlation: -0.40 to -0.60 (strong inverse). 2024-2026 weakened to -0.20 to -0.40. AI capex narrative overriding rate sensitivity. 100bp 10Y move now produces 3-7% QQQ response (vs 8-15% pre-2024). QQQ has dual exposure: duration drag from elevated rates; growth tailwind from AI capex. 2024-2026 AI capex dominated. Watch for: sustained 10Y above 5.5% would test AI override; AI capex disappointment would re-establish duration framework.
How does the pair perform through rate cycles?+
2018-2019: 10Y 2.4% to 3.2% (Q4 2018) then 1.5% (mid-2019). QQQ -22% Q4 2018, +50% through 2019. 2020 COVID: 10Y to 0.5%. QQQ -28% peak-to-trough then +95% through 2021. 2022 hiking: 10Y 1.5% to 5.0%. QQQ -36%. Classical duration worked. 2023 AI awakening: ChatGPT November 2022. NVDA earnings revisions. QQQ +55% in 2023. 2024-2025 AI bull: QQQ +30%+. 2026: QQQ ~$656. AI narrative continues. Pattern: pre-2024 duration dominated; 2024-2026 AI capex override.
How does the pair perform in stress?+
2008-09 GFC: QQQ -54%. Pre-AI tech still rate-sensitive. 2018 Q4 Fed pivot: QQQ -22% (classical duration). 2020 COVID: QQQ -28% then +95% through 2021. 2022 hiking: QQQ -36% peak-to-trough October 2022 (classical duration). 2023 SVB: QQQ +5%. Tech benefits from rate fall. 2024-2026 AI era: QQQ rallied substantially. 2026 Iran war: QQQ held near highs (AI immune to geopolitical). Pattern: pre-2024 duration; 2024-2026 AI override.
How is the pair traded?+
QQQ realized volatility ~20-28% annualized (vs SPY 13-18%, XLK 18-25%, SMH 28-40%). Beta to SPY ~1.15-1.30. 60-day correlation QQQ-10Y -0.20 to -0.40 in 2024-2026; pre-2024 -0.40 to -0.60. QQQ exposure: QQQ ETF (AUM $290B), QQQM (lower-cost share class), TQQQ (3x leveraged). 10Y exposure: TLT or futures. 2022 long TLT / short QQQ gained substantially (QQQ -36%, TLT -50%). 2024-2026 long QQQ / short TLT gained substantially. Most actionable: NVDA quarterly (Feb, May, Aug, Nov), hyperscaler capex (MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN), AAPL services revenue.
How is the pair used for trading?+
10Y rising + QQQ rallying: AI capex dominant (current 2024-2026). Long QQQ. 10Y rising + QQQ falling: classical duration. Pre-2024. 10Y falling + QQQ rallying: confirmed bull. Long QQQ + long TLT. 10Y falling + QQQ falling: rare. Demand weakness. April 2026: 10Y 4.31% + QQQ $656 (near recent highs). AI capex dominant. Long QQQ continues. Watch NVDA May 2026 earnings; Big Tech Q1 2026 (April-May); 10Y trajectory.
How does QQQ compare to other rate-sensitive sectors?+
Vs XLK/10Y: XLK pure tech sector. QQQ has tech + comm services + consumer discretionary + healthcare. Different exposure. Vs SMH/10Y: SMH pure semiconductors. Higher AI capex concentration. QQQ broader. Vs SPY/10Y: SPY broader market. SPY less tech-concentrated than QQQ. April 2026 reading: 10Y 4.31% + QQQ $656 (AI capex dominant). Foundational tech-heavy growth index pair. Pair complements XLK (pure tech), SMH (semis), SPY (broad market) for comprehensive AI capex theme read.
Related Comparisons
Explore Across Convex
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.