Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) vs 10Y Treasury Yield
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) tracks the Nasdaq 100, tech-heavy growth index. April 2026: QQQ approximately $656; 10Y yield 4.31 percent.
Also known as: Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) (ETF_QQQ, Nasdaq, NDX) · 10Y Treasury Yield (10Y yield, 10 year treasury, TNX)
Why This Comparison Matters
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) tracks the Nasdaq 100, tech-heavy growth index. April 2026: QQQ approximately $656; 10Y yield 4.31 percent. Top weights: Nvidia ~9 percent, Apple ~7.6 percent, Microsoft ~5.7 percent, Broadcom, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Tesla. QQQ heavily weighted toward long-duration growth names. Pre-2024 100bp 10Y rise typically associated with 8-15 percent QQQ decline. The 2024-2026 era saw QQQ rally substantially despite elevated 10Y as AI capex narrative overrode duration drag. NVDA +12x peak-to-peak (2023-2025); hyperscaler AI capex $400B+ annual run-rate. Pair captures whether duration framework or AI capex narrative dominates.
The April 2026 Configuration
QQQ approximately $656 (April 2026). 10Y yield 4.31 percent. QQQ AUM approximately $290 billion (largest tech-heavy ETF). Top weights: NVDA ~9%, AAPL ~7.6%, MSFT ~5.7%, AVGO ~4%, AMZN ~5.5%, META ~4.5%, GOOGL ~4%, TSLA ~3.5%. Combined top 8 ~44%.
QQQ has rallied substantially in 2024-2026: 2024 strong, 2025 strong, 2026 modest gains. NVDA +12x peak-to-peak. AI capex narrative dominant. Dispersion within QQQ: high-growth software (CRWD, DDOG, MELI) +50-100% past 12 months; established tech (AAPL +15%, MSFT +30%); semis (NVDA, AVGO, AMD) substantial gains; AAPL more modest as iPhone cycle stable.
Forward-looking: hyperscaler $400B+ AI capex provides multi-year tailwind. NVDA next earnings May 2026. Big Tech Q1 2026 earnings (April-May) signal capex sustainability. Continued elevated 10Y supports duration framework reassertion if AI capex disappoints.
QQQ vs SPY Composition
QQQ vs SPY composition. QQQ is Nasdaq 100 (top 100 non-financial Nasdaq stocks). Excludes financials (no JPM, BAC, etc.). Includes more growth-oriented exposure. Tech weighting ~50% vs SPY 32%. Communication services + consumer discretionary ~20%. Healthcare ~10%. Industrials ~5%.
Key concentration. NVDA largest weight ~9% (vs SPY ~6%). Higher tech concentration. AAPL ~7.6%. MSFT ~5.7%. AVGO ~4%. AMZN ~5.5%. META ~4.5%. GOOGL ~4%. TSLA ~3.5%. Combined Magnificent 7+ approximately 40%.
The practical implication: QQQ has higher AI capex exposure than SPY. Sustained AI narrative supports QQQ outperformance vs SPY. AI capex disappointment would compress QQQ more than SPY.
Why QQQ Should Be Most Rate-Sensitive Equity Index
QQQ should theoretically be most rate-sensitive equity index due to highest growth-stock concentration. Drivers.
Growth profile: QQQ holdings have longest duration cash flows. Most enterprise value derives from cash flows projected 10-20 years ahead. AI capex cycle 5-15 year payoff horizons.
Multiple expansion: QQQ forward P/E approximately 28x vs SPY 22x. Higher multiple reflects longer-duration cash flows.
Empirical sensitivity (pre-2024): 100bp 10Y rise associated with 8-15 percent QQQ decline (vs SPY 5-8 percent decline; XLK 10-12 percent decline). QQQ 1.5-2x rate sensitivity vs SPY.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How 10Y Treasury Yield has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ). Computed from 1,237 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, 10Y Treasury Yield rises 0.90% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.60%. 124 qualifying events; 10Y Treasury Yield closed positive in 56% of them.
90-Day Statistics
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are QQQ and the 10Y Treasury yield?+
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) tracks Nasdaq 100, tech-heavy growth index. April 2026 QQQ ~$656; AUM ~$290 billion (largest tech-heavy ETF). Top weights: NVDA ~9%, AAPL ~7.6%, MSFT ~5.7%, AVGO ~4%, AMZN ~5.5%, META ~4.5%, GOOGL ~4%, TSLA ~3.5% (top 8 ~44%). Magnificent 7+ ~40%. 10Y yield 4.31%. QQQ excludes financials. Tech weighting ~50% vs SPY 32%. QQQ rallied substantially in 2024-2026: NVDA +12x peak-to-peak. AI capex narrative dominant despite elevated 10Y. QQQ realized volatility ~20-28%; beta to SPY ~1.15-1.30.
Why should QQQ be most rate-sensitive equity index?+
Highest growth-stock concentration. Growth profile: longest duration cash flows. Enterprise value 10-20 years ahead. AI capex 5-15 year payoff. Multiple expansion: QQQ forward P/E ~28x vs SPY 22x. Higher multiple reflects longer-duration cash flows. Pre-2024 100bp 10Y rise = 8-15% QQQ decline (vs SPY 5-8%; XLK 10-12%). 1.5-2x rate sensitivity vs SPY. 2022 hiking 10Y 1.5% to 5.0% peak: QQQ -36% peak-to-trough October 2022 (vs SPY -25%). Within QQQ, longest-duration names suffered most: high-growth software -60-75%; established tech -25-35%. 2024-2026 anomaly: AI capex override.
How do QQQ and 10Y diverge in 2024-2026?+
Pre-2024 correlation: -0.40 to -0.60 (strong inverse). 2024-2026 weakened to -0.20 to -0.40. AI capex narrative overriding rate sensitivity. 100bp 10Y move now produces 3-7% QQQ response (vs 8-15% pre-2024). QQQ has dual exposure: duration drag from elevated rates; growth tailwind from AI capex. 2024-2026 AI capex dominated. Watch for: sustained 10Y above 5.5% would test AI override; AI capex disappointment would re-establish duration framework.
Related Comparisons
Explore Across Convex
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.