VIX vs MOVE Index

VIX closes April 24, 2026 at 18.76 (down from peak 31.05 on March 27, 2026). MOVE Index at 66.97 (current data). VIX/MOVE ratio approximately 0.28 (within normal range 0.20-0.40). MOVE/VIX ratio approximately 3.57 (within normal 3-5 range).

VIX peak 31.05 March 27 2026 reflected Iran war initial shock. MOVE behavior during the same period: elevated above 70 levels reflecting Treasury market stress from oil price impact on inflation expectations and Fed policy uncertainty. Both have moderated as Iran ceasefire stabilized.

The combined April 2026 reading: cross-asset volatility moderating from March peaks. VIX in upper end of normal range (16-22 typical). MOVE elevated relative to historical averages (60-90 typical, but elevated since 2022 hiking cycle, currently 66.97 in mid-range). The configuration suggests Treasury market continuing to price meaningful policy uncertainty while equity market has stabilized faster than rates market. Lead-lag pattern would suggest equity stability is reliable until/unless MOVE re-accelerates.

VIX and MOVE measure volatility in different asset classes with distinct drivers. VIX is dominated by equity-specific factors: earnings expectations, multiple expansion, mega-cap concentration risk, single-name shocks. MOVE is dominated by macro/rates factors: Fed policy expectations, inflation surprises, fiscal trajectory, term premium dynamics.

The practical implication: VIX and MOVE diverge during specific stress regimes. Macro/rates-led stress (high MOVE, low VIX): Fed surprises, inflation shocks, banking system funding stress (March 2023 SVB), debt ceiling drama, fiscal trajectory concerns. Equity-led stress (high VIX, low MOVE): earnings disappointments, single-name implosions, sector rotation, AI capex concerns. Combined stress (high both): recessions, financial crises, policy regime breaks.

Correlation between VIX and MOVE: long-run correlation approximately 0.55-0.75 (positive but moderate). During pure rates stress correlation drops to 0.20-0.40 as MOVE moves while VIX stays subdued. During pure equity stress correlation drops similarly as VIX moves while MOVE stays calm. During global crisis correlation rises to 0.85+ (both elevated).

MOVE Index calibration: weighted average of basis-point implied volatilities of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury options at 1-month maturity. The weighting is approximately 0.2 (2Y), 0.2 (5Y), 0.4 (10Y), 0.2 (30Y). The 10Y has highest weight reflecting policy-sensitive belly of curve.

Units: MOVE is annualized basis points (e.g., 67 bp annualized = 67/sqrt(12) ~= 19 bp monthly = 19/sqrt(252) ~= 1.2 bp daily). VIX is annualized percent (e.g., 18.76 percent annualized = 18.76/sqrt(252) ~= 1.18 percent daily). Different units make direct comparison non-trivial. Practitioners normalize by computing VIX/MOVE ratio (in same scale).

Historical MOVE ranges. Pre-2022: 50-90 basis points typical, with extreme spikes to 170+ during 2008 GFC. 2022-2023 hiking cycle: 100-180 basis points (extreme regime). 2024-2026: 60-100 basis points (post-hiking-cycle moderation). Current 66.97 is in lower-middle of post-2022 range.

VIX/MOVE long-run ratio: 0.20-0.40 in normal conditions. April 2026 ratio 0.28 is mid-range. Ratio expansion above 0.40 suggests equity-specific stress emerging; compression below 0.20 suggests rates-specific stress dominating.

A core insight: bond volatility tends to lead equity volatility. Bonds determine the discount rate used to value all assets. When MOVE rises, bond yields are uncertain, which propagates to equity valuations through changing discount rates with a lag.

Historical examples of MOVE leading VIX. March 2023 banking crisis: MOVE began climbing several days before corresponding moves in VIX. SVB collapse March 10, 2023; MOVE spiked 100+ in week prior; VIX rose only after weekend. The lead-lag pattern applied because banking stress hit Treasury auction dynamics first (failed Treasury bid), then propagated to equity multiples.

February 2022 Russia invasion lead-up: MOVE elevated for weeks as Treasury market priced inflation tail risk; VIX moved later when invasion catalyst hit equity earnings expectations.

December 2018 Fed pivot scare: MOVE elevated 100+ for weeks; VIX rose in tandem but with 1-2 week lag at major moves.

The practical implication: monitoring MOVE provides early warning for VIX moves with typical lead time 1-7 days. Allocators use MOVE as input to risk-parity rebalancing, vol-targeted strategy adjustments, and pre-emptive equity hedging.

Three macro cycle examples of VIX-vs-MOVE dynamics. 2018-2019 Fed pivot: MOVE rose from 50 to 100+ Q4 2018 on Fed hawkishness; VIX rose from 12 to 36 with 2-week lag. Then both compressed through 2019 as Fed pivoted dovish. MOVE/VIX ratio expanded then contracted in cycle pattern.

2020-2021 COVID era: MOVE peaked 175 in March 2020; VIX peaked 82.69 same period. Both at extreme levels (parallel global crisis). 2021 stability: MOVE 50-70, VIX 15-25 (low-vol regime).

2022-2023 hiking cycle: MOVE elevated 100-180 throughout (extreme rates regime); VIX 22-35 (moderately elevated). MOVE/VIX ratio reached extreme 6-8x. Configuration was historically anomalous: extreme rates volatility with only moderate equity volatility. The configuration reflected: (1) Fed reaction function uncertainty (variable hike pace); (2) inflation surprises; (3) equities priced economic weakness, not financial crisis.

2024-2026 post-hiking moderation: MOVE 60-90; VIX 12-22 (normal). MOVE/VIX ratio 3-5 (normal). Both moderating from 2022-2023 extremes.

The pattern: MOVE leads VIX by days to weeks during macro stress events. Both elevated together during global crises. MOVE elevated alone during pure rates regime changes (2022-2023).

Stress history shows specific VIX-vs-MOVE patterns.

2008-09 GFC: MOVE peaked 213 (October 2008); VIX peaked 89.5 (November 2008). Both at all-time highs. Parallel global crisis with rates-led leading.

2011 European debt crisis: MOVE peaked 110+; VIX peaked 48. Both elevated. MOVE led by approximately 1 week.

2018 February vol-mageddon: VIX +260 percent in one day to 50; MOVE relatively contained at 60. VIX/MOVE ratio expanded sharply (US-specific equity vol shock from XIV/SVXY blowup).

2018 Q4 Fed pivot scare: MOVE rose 50 to 100+; VIX rose 12 to 36 with 2-week lag. MOVE-led equity stress.

2020 COVID flash crash: MOVE peaked 175 (March 2020); VIX peaked 82.69. Both at extreme levels. Coordinated global pandemic shock.

2022 Fed hiking + Russia: MOVE 100-180 throughout 2022; VIX 22-35. MOVE elevated alone (rates regime).

2023 March SVB banking crisis: MOVE rose to 200 in March 2023; VIX rose to 26 with several-day lag. MOVE-led banking stress.

2026 Iran war: VIX peaked 31.05 (March 27); MOVE elevated above 70. Both moderated as ceasefire stabilized.

The pattern: MOVE leads VIX during pure rates stress (2018 Q4, 2022, 2023 SVB). Both elevated during global crises (2008, 2020). VIX elevated alone during equity-specific shocks (2018 vol-mageddon).

Both VIX and MOVE are volatility indices, not directly tradable. Exposure must be obtained through derivatives or ETF products.

VIX exposure: VIX futures (VX on CFE Cboe Futures Exchange), VIXY (ProShares VIX Short-Term ETF), UVXY (ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term, leveraged), VXX (iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN, longest-running), short VIX through SVXY (ProShares Short VIX) or systematic vol-selling strategies.

MOVE exposure: MOVE has no direct futures or ETF products (unlike VIX). Approximate MOVE exposure through Treasury options directly (10Y at-the-money straddles), or 10Y/30Y futures vol via futures options. Schwab's LTPZ (long Treasury TIPS), TLT (long Treasury), or short positions in TLT can provide indirect rates volatility exposure but with directional bias.

For cross-asset volatility regime monitoring (rather than direct trading), use VIX/MOVE ratio. Ratio above 0.40 suggests equity-led regime; below 0.20 suggests rates-led regime; 0.20-0.40 normal range.

Risk-parity strategies and vol-targeted strategies use both VIX and MOVE inputs. When MOVE rises, position sizing reduces in fixed income; when VIX rises, position sizing reduces in equities.

For pair traders, VIX/MOVE ratio is the primary signal. Currently 0.28 (April 2026, within normal 0.20-0.40 range).

Long VIX / short MOVE-equivalent (long Treasury rates exposure) captures equity-specific stress + rates stability scenarios: benefits from US tech multiple compression, AI capex disappointment, single-name implosions, sector rotation.

Long MOVE-equivalent / short VIX captures rates-specific stress + equity stability scenarios: benefits from Fed policy surprises, inflation surprises, banking funding stress, debt ceiling drama, fiscal trajectory concerns.

Direct pair trading is operationally complex. Cleaner application for most investors: use divergence as regime indicator. MOVE rising while VIX flat = early warning for rates-driven equity drawdown. Reduce risk budget. VIX rising while MOVE flat = equity-specific stress, expect mean reversion faster.

April 2026 setup (VIX 18.76, MOVE 66.97, ratio 0.28) is consistent with normal regime, no clear directional signal. Watch for ratio expansion above 0.35 or compression below 0.22 for actionable signals.

The cleanest playbook: monitor MOVE for early warning, position equity hedges (long VIX or short SPY) when MOVE rises 30+ percent without corresponding VIX move. Banking stress March 2023 was textbook example: MOVE rose from 110 to 200 while VIX still at 18; equity drawdown followed by 5-10 days.

VIX/MOVE captures equity-vs-rates volatility. Compared to other volatility pairs.

Vs VSTOXX/VIX: VSTOXX captures European equity volatility. VSTOXX/VIX captures regional dispersion. VIX/MOVE captures cross-asset (equity vs rates) volatility.

Vs VVIX/VIX: VVIX measures volatility of volatility (VIX options implied vol). Captures vol-of-vol regime changes. VIX/MOVE captures volatility regime across asset classes.

Vs SKEW/VIX: SKEW measures S&P 500 30-day skew implied from out-of-money put options. Captures tail-risk premium pricing. VIX/MOVE captures broad-vol regime.

Vs gold/VIX: gold/VIX captures real-asset risk-off vs equity volatility. Different signal (debasement narrative vs equity fear).

For allocator monitoring, VIX/MOVE is the primary cross-asset volatility regime indicator. April 2026 reading 0.28 normal. Pair complements VSTOXX/VIX (regional), VVIX/VIX (vol-of-vol), SKEW/VIX (tail-risk), gold/VIX (cross-asset risk-off), bitcoin/VIX (crypto-vs-vol) for comprehensive volatility regime read.

VIX 18.76 (April 24 2026, off March 27 peak 31.05); MOVE 66.97 (current). VIX/MOVE ratio 0.28 (normal range 0.20-0.40). Both moderating from March peaks as Iran ceasefire stabilizes.

Forward-looking through 2026: continued Iran ceasefire stabilization compresses both. Fed policy clarity (next FOMC meeting reduces MOVE). US-Iran negotiation breakthrough compresses both. Banking system stability (regional banking earnings) keeps MOVE in lower range. AI capex narrative continuation compresses VIX.

Risk factors: Fed surprises (MOVE catalyst); inflation surprises in core PCE (MOVE catalyst); regional banking concerns (MOVE-led VIX move); AI capex disappointment (VIX catalyst); China consumer/property crisis (both); geopolitical escalation (both).

Watch MOVE direction for early warning of regime changes. MOVE rising 30+ percent without VIX response is textbook rates-led stress signal. Watch FOMC meetings (next May 6-7, 2026) for MOVE catalysts. Watch Treasury auctions for any signs of weak demand. Expected VIX/MOVE range-bound 0.25-0.35 absent major stress catalyst. The pair offers leading-indicator characteristics through MOVE for rates-driven equity moves.