WTI Oil vs Energy Sector (XLE)
WTI traded at $95.85 on April 23, 2026, up roughly 30 percent year-on-year on Iran war supply concerns. XLE (Energy Select SPDR) closed near $55 the same week, up approximately 54 percent over the trailing 12 months.
Also known as: WTI Crude Oil (WTI_AV, crude oil, OIL, WTI live) · Energy (XLE) (ETF_XLE, energy sector)
Why This Comparison Matters
WTI traded at $95.85 on April 23, 2026, up roughly 30 percent year-on-year on Iran war supply concerns. XLE (Energy Select SPDR) closed near $55 the same week, up approximately 54 percent over the trailing 12 months. XLE is the only major S&P sector trading positive year-to-date in 2026 and has captured leveraged upside to the oil rally through its 40 percent combined weight in ExxonMobil and Chevron. The pair captures whether energy equities are pricing oil cycle persistence (XLE outperforming WTI) or fading the move (WTI outperforming XLE).
What XLE Actually Holds
XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) tracks the Energy Select Sector Index, which holds the energy sector constituents of the S&P 500. April 2026 holdings are concentrated: ExxonMobil at 22.85 percent, Chevron at 17.16 percent (40 percent combined), ConocoPhillips at 7.07 percent, Schlumberger (SLB) at 4.64 percent, Williams Companies at 4.43 percent. The fund has roughly 22 holdings, expense ratio 0.08 percent, AUM approximately $40 billion.
The high concentration matters. ExxonMobil and Chevron are integrated majors with large refining, chemicals, and downstream operations alongside upstream production. Their margins respond differently to oil price changes than pure E&P (exploration and production) names like Pioneer or APA. The XLE construction therefore captures more than a pure crude beta: it includes refining margins, chemicals demand, gas pipeline tariffs, and capital allocation decisions of two of the largest US-listed corporations.
The Oil-Equity Beta Math
Empirically, XLE moves approximately 1.3 to 1.6 times the percentage change in WTI over rolling 30-day windows during oil rallies, and roughly 0.8 to 1.0 times during oil declines. The asymmetric beta reflects margin dynamics: when oil rises faster than operating costs, every dollar of oil price improvement falls to the bottom line; when oil falls, fixed costs and break-even prices cushion the equity decline.
The specific multiplier varies by sub-sector. Pure E&P names (XOP ETF) have higher beta to WTI (1.5 to 2.0) than integrated majors (1.0 to 1.3). Refiners have negative beta to crude prices (higher oil compresses refining margins) but positive beta to gasoline crack spreads. Oilfield services (SLB, HAL, BKR) have higher beta to oil capex spending than to spot crude. XLE's mix produces a 1.2 to 1.4 average beta to WTI, but with substantial regime variation.
The Post-2020 Capex Discipline Era
Through the 2010 to 2019 shale boom, US E&P capex grew faster than oil prices. Public producers reinvested 100 to 130 percent of operating cash flow into new drilling. The result was the largest US oil supply expansion in history (from 5 million barrels per day to 13 million at peak) but consistently disappointing equity returns: producers grew volume rather than per-share value.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How Energy (XLE) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in WTI Crude Oil. Computed from 1,281 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, Energy (XLE) rises 0.47% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.41%. 128 qualifying events; Energy (XLE) closed positive in 58% of them.
90-Day Statistics
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current XLE price?+
XLE traded at $55.07 on April 20, 2026, up approximately 54 percent over the trailing 12 months. The ETF has been the only major S&P sector trading positive year-to-date in 2026, primarily driven by the Iran war oil price surge. WTI traded at $95.85 the same week. XLE has consolidated in a $50 to $55 range since mid-March 2026 even as WTI has remained elevated, suggesting markets are pricing some risk premium fade in oil prices.
What does XLE hold?+
XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) holds the energy sector constituents of the S&P 500. April 2026 top holdings: ExxonMobil 22.85 percent, Chevron 17.16 percent (40 percent combined), ConocoPhillips 7.07 percent, Schlumberger 4.64 percent, Williams Companies 4.43 percent. The fund holds approximately 22 stocks, expense ratio 0.08 percent, AUM about $40 billion. The high XOM-CVX concentration means the ETF has integrated major exposure rather than pure E&P or refining exposure; alternative ETFs include XOP (E&P), OIH (services), and VDE (broader energy with similar XOM-CVX concentration).
Why does XLE outperform WTI sometimes?+
Three reasons. First, capex discipline since 2020: producers return 30 to 50 percent of operating cash flow as dividends and buybacks rather than reinvesting all of it. Higher oil flows directly to shareholder returns. Second, valuation re-rating: oil cycle persistence raises forward P/E multiples (XLE expanded from 11x to 14x in 2024). Third, total return component: dividend yields above 3.5 percent and buybacks add 5 to 8 percent annually to equity returns regardless of oil price. Over the past 5 years XLE has returned 22 percent annualized versus WTI at 14 percent annualized, with the gap largely from capital returns.
Related Comparisons
Explore Across Convex
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.