WTI Crude Oil
WTI crude oil real-time spot price from live market feeds, updated every minute during NYMEX hours. Use for intraday tracking; for end-of-day FRED data use /metrics/dcoilwtico.
The WTI Crude Oil is currently $102.16, last updated .
Commodities sit at the intersection of monetary and physical reality. Oil and gas prices flow almost directly into headline CPI, while copper and iron ore track global industrial activity ahead of official releases. Tracking each complex alongside its supply signal (EIA inventories, rig counts, seaborne cargo flows) separates genuine demand moves from inventory-cycle noise.
AI Analysis
May 14, 2026THESIS HEALTH: INTACT. WTI market price at $100.98 (essentially unchanged from prior $100.99, STABLE). FRED series at $101.56 (+9.12% 1M, ACCELERATING — supply shock dynamics are real). Brent at $106.11 (+4.21% 1W, ACCELERATING). CHANGE: NEUTRAL/LOW → BULLISH/LOW. Trigger: (1) WTI has broken above $100 and is holding — this is a significant level. (2) Hot CPI print confirms energy is contributing to inflation. (3) Tariff reinstatement (10% global) is inflationary for energy via supply chain costs. KEY DATA: (1) CFTC WTI net spec at -34,061 (6th pctile, STABLE) — crowded short creates mechanical bid. Any supply disruption triggers a violent short squeeze. (2) WTI +9.12% 1M (ACCELERATING) — momentum is bullish. (3) Energy supply shock scenario at 20% probability (HOT heat) — geopolitical risk is elevated. COUNTER-THESIS: Geopolitical de-escalation (Trump-Xi meeting, Trump downplaying US-Iran differences) reduces supply disruption risk. Hard landing scenario (20% probability) would collapse demand and send WTI to $70-80. GDPNow at 1.3% suggests demand is already weakening. The demand backdrop is the key bearish risk. PAYOFF ASYMMETRY: If right (WTI to $105-115): +4-14% upside. If wrong (demand collapse to $80-85): -20-25% downside. R/R: 0.7:1 — not compelling on pure price basis, but the crowded short creates asymmetric upside on supply shock. The 20% energy supply shock scenario would see WTI spike to $120-130 rapidly. INVALIDATION: WTI (market price) below $88 for 2 consecutive closes (demand collapse confirmed, would downgrade to BEARISH/LOW). WTI above $120 for 2 consecutive closes on confirmed supply shock (would upgrade to BULLISH/MODERATE).
What WTI Tracks and Why It Matters
WTI is West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the US-grade benchmark traded on NYMEX and physically delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma. It is light (high API gravity), sweet (low sulfur), and prices roughly $2-$5 below Brent in normal conditions. WTI is the reference price for North American crude production and the standard hedging instrument for US E&P companies.
Why it matters: oil is the swing input for global headline inflation and the most politically and geopolitically sensitive commodity. A 10% sustained move in oil moves headline CPI by roughly 25-40bp over six months, which means the Fed reaction function is partially a function of WTI. WTI also drives the energy sector (XLE 24% XOM, 17% CVX), high-yield credit (energy is roughly 14% of HY index), and emerging-market dollar dynamics through petrodollar flows. When WTI breaks meaningfully in either direction, the entire macro complex re-prices.
How to Read WTI Right Now
WTI traded $103/bbl on April 29, 2026, having surged through April from a month-range low of $80.56 to a high of $117.63. The April 2026 spike was driven by Iran tensions and OPEC+ supply discipline. XLE traded $57.71 on April 28 with a 52-week range of $39.75 to $63.46, reflecting the producer leverage to crude.
The current setup is bearish for inflation cooperation: Trump tariffs add roughly 70bp to headline CPI, sticky services run above 4%, and a sustained WTI above $100 would reload the inflation impulse the Fed has been trying to drain. The April 29 Fed hold (8-4 dissent, four wanting cuts) reflects exactly this tension. WTI above $110 would likely shift Fed dialogue back toward holds-or-hikes; WTI back under $80 would meaningfully ease the inflation backdrop.
Historical Range and Drivers
Modern WTI peaks and troughs: $147 in July 2008 (peak demand-side), $32 in December 2008 (GFC demand collapse), -$37 in April 2020 (COVID storage crisis, the only negative settlement in history), $130 in March 2022 (Russia invasion), and $44 in January 2015 / $31 in January 2016 (US shale supply surge). The three drivers are OPEC+ supply discipline, US shale producer breakeven economics ($40-$50 typical), and Chinese demand. Geopolitical risk premium adds $5-$15 in any active conflict involving Iran, Russia, or major Gulf producers.
What to Watch in WTI
First, US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) levels and refill cadence. Below 350M barrels signals limited US ability to dampen spikes.
Second, OPEC+ monthly production decisions. Saudi-Russia-UAE coordination versus discord shifts WTI fair value by $10-$20.
Third, Chinese oil imports (custom monthly data). Sustained imports above 11 mbpd are bullish; below 9.5 mbpd signal demand destruction.
Recent Data
Download CSV| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | $102.16 | -0.42% |
| May 17, 2026 | $102.59 | +1.55% |
| May 16, 2026 | $101.02 | -0.14% |
| May 15, 2026 | $101.16 | -0.81% |
| May 14, 2026 | $101.99 | +0.98% |
| May 13, 2026 | $101 | -1.02% |
| May 12, 2026 | $102.04 | +4.02% |
| May 11, 2026 | $98.1 | -0.24% |
| May 10, 2026 | $98.34 | +3.06% |
| May 9, 2026 | $95.42 | +0.78% |
| May 8, 2026 | $94.68 | -2.49% |
| May 7, 2026 | $97.1 | +1.15% |
| May 6, 2026 | $96 | -4.03% |
| May 5, 2026 | $100.03 | -4.75% |
| May 4, 2026 | $105.02 | +3.70% |
| May 3, 2026 | $101.27 | -0.66% |
| May 2, 2026 | $101.94 | -0.55% |
| May 1, 2026 | $102.5 | -3.11% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $105.79 | -2.06% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $108.01 | +8.66% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | $99.4 | +2.83% |
| Apr 27, 2026 | $96.66 | +0.55% |
| Apr 26, 2026 | $96.13 | +1.83% |
| Apr 25, 2026 | $94.4 | — |
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated real-time. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.