March 2025 FOMC Report
Saturday, March 1, 2025
FOMC printed at 4.33%, a +0.00% move from the prior reading of 4.33%.
What to Watch For
- •Rate decision itself, cut, hike, or hold
- •Statement language changes (word-level diff)
- •Dot plot (SEP meetings only) vs prior
- •Dissents, direction and count
- •Powell press conference tone
- •Balance sheet (QT) pace changes
- •Economic projections vs consensus
Expected Market Reaction
Hawkish surprise: 2Y yields spike, curve flattens, dollar up, equities down, gold down. Dovish surprise: 2Y yields drop, curve steepens (bull steepener), dollar down, equities rip, gold up. Statement and presser can reverse each other, full reaction often takes 60-90 minutes to settle.
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