August 2023 NFP / Jobs Report Report
Tuesday, August 1, 2023
NFP / Jobs Report printed at 156,261, a +0.14% move from the prior reading of 156,043.
What to Watch For
- •Payroll growth vs consensus
- •Prior-month revisions (often 50-100K magnitude)
- •Unemployment rate, Sahm Rule trigger
- •Average hourly earnings YoY, wage inflation
- •Labor force participation
- •Birth/death adjustments (controversial)
- •Household survey vs establishment survey divergence
Expected Market Reaction
Strong report (beat + low unemployment + hot wages): rates up, dollar up, equities mixed (good for growth, bad for duration). Weak report: rates down, dollar down, equities mixed (recession fear vs rate cut bid). Wages matter as much as payroll count, hot wages can turn a "good" report into a problem.
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Related Scenarios
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Get release-day analysis and market reaction framing before consensus forms.