20Y+ Treasury ETF

TLT is the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, the most-traded long-duration Treasury vehicle. It holds Treasuries with at least 20 years to maturity, with weighted-average duration around 17 years. Long duration means the fund's price is highly sensitive to long-end yields: roughly +1% move in 30Y yields produces approximately a -17% move in TLT.

Why it matters: TLT is the cleanest equity-correlated hedge during deflationary shocks (2008 +28.3%, March 2020 +21% peak rally) and the worst-performing major asset class during inflation shocks (2022 -31.41%, the worst calendar year in TLT's history). The TLT-SPY correlation runs negative (-0.5 to -0.7) in normal regimes but can flip positive (peak 0.88 in late 2023) when both are responding to the same rate factor. TLT is the standard duration leg of the 60-40 portfolio and the reference instrument for long-end Treasury market-making.

TLT closed $85.65 on April 29, 2026, with the 10Y at 4.31% and the 30Y near 4.65%. The fund remains roughly 50% below its March 2020 ATH of $179.70 and is trading in a $83-$102 range that has held since late 2023. The 2020-2023 drawdown of -54% was the deepest in any Treasury ETF in modern history, driven by the +525bp hiking cycle and quantitative tightening.

With the Fed at 3.50-3.75% and four FOMC dissenters voting for cuts on April 29, the TLT bull case rests on the cuts arriving and the long end agreeing. The risk is a re-acceleration of inflation that pushes the 10Y back above 5%; that scenario takes TLT to the low $80s. Term premium has rebuilt to roughly +68bp on the ACM 10Y model, the highest since 2014, which means long-end yields are no longer as anchored to short-end policy expectations as they were in the 2010s ZIRP era.

TLT was launched in 2002. Calendar-year returns: best +33.6% in 2008 (deflation shock); worst -31.41% in 2022 (inflation shock). The all-time high $179.70 was set on March 9, 2020 during the COVID flight-to-quality. The three drivers are real yields (TIPS), inflation expectations (breakevens), and term premium (the ACM model). Real yields lead TLT direction; breakevens determine whether the move is risk-on or risk-off in equity terms.

First, the 10Y TIPS real yield. At 1.93% it sits well above the 2010s average; a sustained move below 1.5% would mean TLT can rally even with 10Y nominal stable.

Second, the ACM 10Y term premium. At +68bp it is the highest since 2014. A move back toward zero would lift TLT 5-10% even with no policy rate change.

Third, the TLT-SPY correlation. A reversion from current 0.14 toward the historical -0.5 would mean TLT regains its hedge function in the 60-40 portfolio.