What Happens to 20Y+ Treasury ETF When the Convex Risk Appetite Index Collapses?
What happens when the Convex Risk Appetite Index collapses into extreme fear? Composite of VIX, credit spreads, put-call ratios, and positioning.
How 20Y+ Treasury ETF Responds
Scenario Background
The Convex Risk Appetite Index aggregates volatility (VIX), credit spreads, put-call ratios, equity positioning, and safe-haven flows into a unified sentiment gauge. A collapse into extreme fear territory indicates broad-based risk aversion across multiple dimensions simultaneously: hedging activity, credit stress, volatility, and defensive positioning.
Read full scenario analysis →Historical Context
The index has collapsed into extreme fear during major stress events: late 2008 (Lehman), August 2011 (US debt downgrade), August 2015 (China devaluation), December 2018 (Powell pivot), March 2020 (COVID), and October 2022 (UK gilt crisis). In each case, forward 12-month S&P 500 returns exceeded 15% from the extreme fear nadir. The March 2020 reading was the most extreme in the series history, producing 70%+ forward returns. The 2008 episode saw multiple consecutive extreme fear readings before the March 2009 bottom, highlighting that extreme fear is necessary but not always sufficient for an immediate bottom.
What to Watch For
- •VIX spiking above 35 alongside credit widening
- •Put-call ratio above 1.3
- •AAII bearish readings above 50%
- •Forward P/E compressing to 15x or below
- •Insider buying activity rising sharply
Other Assets When the Convex Risk Appetite Index Collapses
Other Scenarios Affecting 20Y+ Treasury ETF
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