What Happens to 20Y+ Treasury ETF When Credit Card Delinquencies Spike?
What happens when credit card delinquencies cross 3.5%? Consumer-cycle stress: XLY underperforms, regional banks (KRE) take hits, TLT bid on Fed-cut bets.
How 20Y+ Treasury ETF Responds
Scenario Background
Credit card delinquency rates measure the percentage of credit card balances past due 30+ days. Rising delinquencies signal consumer financial stress and typically accompany rising unemployment, declining real income, or the expiration of pandemic-era support programs. The threshold above 3.5% has historically been associated with meaningful consumer distress.
Read full scenario analysis →Historical Context
US credit card delinquency peaked at 6.8% in 2009, troughed at 2.1% in 2021 (stimulus-boosted), and has been rising since 2022 from 1.6% (subset measure) through 3%+ by 2024. The 1990-91 recession saw delinquencies reach 5.5%. The 2020 COVID shock saw delinquencies decline due to stimulus payments and forbearance programs, an unusual pattern. Current levels, while below crisis peaks, are elevated relative to the 2014-2021 period.
What to Watch For
- •Credit card delinquencies above 4%
- •Auto loan delinquencies rising
- •Subprime auto stress signals
- •Credit card charge-off rates rising above 4%
- •Bank consumer loan loss provisions rising
Other Assets When Credit Card Delinquencies Spike
Other Scenarios Affecting 20Y+ Treasury ETF
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