Gold vs WTI Oil
Gold closed at $4,722.19 on April 25, 2026; WTI crude oil at $95.85 on April 23, 2026. The gold-oil ratio is approximately 49.3 barrels of oil per ounce of gold, an extreme reading that ranks among the highest in market history.
Also known as: Gold (Spot) (XAU, XAUUSD, GC, gold price) · WTI Crude Oil (WTI_AV, crude oil, OIL, WTI live)
Why This Comparison Matters
Gold closed at $4,722.19 on April 25, 2026; WTI crude oil at $95.85 on April 23, 2026. The gold-oil ratio is approximately 49.3 barrels of oil per ounce of gold, an extreme reading that ranks among the highest in market history. The long-run average is approximately 15-20 barrels per ounce. The ratio above 25 has historically marked recession, financial stress, or extreme commodity dislocation. The current 49.3 reading reflects gold's 180 percent rally from $2,000 base in early 2024 to $5,602 ATH in January 2026, combined with oil holding range-bound at $70-100 despite the Iran war shock. Gold has been the dominant inflation/safe-haven hedge of 2024-2026; oil has been a modest beneficiary of Iran war but constrained by demand concerns and SPR draws.
The April 2026 Configuration
Gold $4,722.19 / WTI $95.85 = ratio 49.3 barrels per ounce. The ratio peaked at 95+ in April 2020 (briefly negative oil prices) and 30+ during 2008-09 financial crisis. The current 49.3 reading is the second-highest in history, exceeded only by the 2020 episode.
Gold reached an all-time high of $5,602.22 on January 28, 2026 driven by central bank buying (~1,000 tons annually 2022-2025, highest since 1967), Iran war safe-haven flows, and US fiscal credibility concerns. Oil reached $105+ peak during Iran war but has retraced toward $95 on ceasefire optimism.
The ratio at 49.3 is at extreme territory. Historical mean reversion suggests either gold compression or oil rally to bring ratio toward 25-30 normalized range. The 2020 reading 95+ resolved through oil recovery (negative prices to $70+ within 12 months) rather than gold compression. The 2024-2026 setup may follow similar pattern.
Historical Gold-Oil Ratio Context
The gold-oil ratio has multi-decade history with consistent regime patterns. 1970s: ratio averaged 15-25 with oil rallying faster than gold during 1973 OPEC embargo and 1979 Iran revolution. 1980 stagflation peak: ratio ~30 with both gold and oil at peaks. 1990s-2000s: ratio averaged 12-18 in normal commodity cycles. 2008-09 financial crisis: ratio spiked 30+ as gold rallied on safe-haven flows while oil collapsed from $147 peak to $35.
2014-2016 commodity bust: ratio peaked 45+ as oil collapsed from $107 to $26 while gold held $1,200. April 2020 COVID flash crash: ratio briefly above 95+ as WTI went negative ($-37 May 2020 contract) while gold rallied to $1,800. 2022 Russia-Ukraine: ratio compressed to 13 as oil rallied to $124 while gold ranged $1,800-2,100. Current 2024-2026: ratio 35-49 as gold massively outperformed.
Mean-reversion potential: ratio above 30 has historically reverted to 15-25 within 12-24 months. The April 2026 reading of 49.3 is near 2020 extreme; reversion potential exists but timing and direction (gold compression vs oil rally) are uncertain.
Why Gold Has Massively Outperformed Oil
Three structural factors drove gold-vs-oil divergence in 2024-2026. First, central bank buying: emerging market central banks (PBoC, RBI, CBR, others) purchased approximately 1,000 tons of gold annually 2022-2025 (highest sustained pace since 1967). The official-sector demand is price-insensitive and persistent, providing baseline gold support that no equivalent existed for oil.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How WTI Crude Oil has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Gold (Spot). Computed from 1,306 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, WTI Crude Oil rises 0.57% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.30%. 131 qualifying events; WTI Crude Oil closed positive in 56% of them.
90-Day Statistics
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current gold-oil ratio?+
Gold $4,722.19 / WTI $95.85 = ratio 49.3 barrels per ounce. The 12-month range is ~35-60. The 5-year range is 13 to 95+ (April 2020 extreme). The current 49.3 is the second-highest in history, exceeded only by 2020 COVID flash crash episode. Long-run average is 15-20 barrels per ounce. Gold ATH $5,602.22 January 28 2026; WTI peaked $105+ during Iran war late February 2026. Both have retraced: gold 16% from ATH, WTI 10% from peak. Ratio rose as gold compression outpaced oil compression.
What does an extreme ratio reading signal?+
Ratio above 30 has historically marked recession, financial stress, or extreme commodity dislocation. Current 49.3 is in extreme territory. Historical mean reversion: ratio above 30 has historically reverted to 15-25 within 12-24 months. 1973 oil shock ratio fell to 7. 1980 stagflation peak ratio ~30. 2008-09 GFC ratio spiked 30+ as gold rallied on safe-haven while oil collapsed from $147 to $35. 2014-2016 commodity bust ratio peaked 45+ as oil collapsed $107 to $26 while gold held $1,200. April 2020 COVID ratio briefly 95+ as WTI went negative.
Why has gold massively outperformed oil 2024-2026?+
Three structural factors. First, central bank buying: EM central banks (PBoC, RBI, CBR, others) purchased ~1,000 tons annually 2022-2025 (highest since 1967). Official-sector demand price-insensitive, providing baseline gold support no equivalent for oil. Second, fiscal credibility concerns: US fiscal deficit projected above $2T FY 2027 with foreign Treasury demand declining drove gold safe-haven rotation. Third, oil demand concerns: 2024-2026 weakness in EV adoption, structural OECD demand decline (efficiency, EV penetration), SPR depletion. Oil demand growth slowed to ~1 mbpd vs historical 1.5-2 mbpd, limiting upside despite Iran war supply concerns.
Related Comparisons
Explore Across Convex
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.