Tesla (TSLA) vs 10Y Treasury Yield
Tesla (TSLA) is electric vehicle and energy company with substantial AI/robotaxi/Optimus optionality. April 2026 TSLA approximately $376; -14 percent YTD; underperforming all megacap peers in 2026.
Also known as: Tesla (TSLA) (STK_TSLA, Tesla) · 10Y Treasury Yield (10Y yield, 10 year treasury, TNX)
Why This Comparison Matters
Tesla (TSLA) is electric vehicle and energy company with substantial AI/robotaxi/Optimus optionality. April 2026 TSLA approximately $376; -14 percent YTD; underperforming all megacap peers in 2026. Q1 2026 deliveries 358,023 vehicles (+6 percent YoY but missed expectations). Robotaxi launched Austin January 22 2026; expanded to Dallas, Houston (April 2026); preparing Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Las Vegas. Cybercab pilot production began Gigafactory Texas (April 2026). 10Y yield 4.31 percent. TSLA market cap approximately $1.2 trillion. Wall Street consensus Hold; 12-month target $398-$406 (modest upside). TSLA is one of most duration-sensitive mega-caps: valuation depends on future cash flows from autonomy, robotics, energy. Pair captures whether AI/robotaxi narrative offsets duration drag.
The April 2026 Configuration
TSLA $376 (April 2026, -14 percent YTD). Underperforming all megacap peers in 2026. 10Y yield 4.31 percent. Market cap approximately $1.2 trillion.
Q1 2026 deliveries 358,023 vehicles (+6 percent YoY but missed expectations). Q1 2026 revenue +16 percent YoY (AI/Robotaxi ramp). Tesla deliveries lower than prior quarter.
Robotaxi developments. January 22 2026 launched fully unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin. April 2026 expanded to Dallas and Houston. Pipeline: Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Las Vegas. Paid robotaxi miles nearly doubled sequentially in Q1 2026.
Cybercab pilot production began Gigafactory Texas April 2026. First production unit February 18 2026. Purpose-built autonomous vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals).
Analyst outlook: Wall Street Hold; 12-month target $398-$406; modest single-digit upside. TSLA underperforming despite robotaxi ramp because: (1) Q1 delivery miss; (2) elevated 10Y pressuring duration assets; (3) competition (BYD, Chinese EV makers, Waymo); (4) AI/robotaxi monetization timeline uncertainty.
Why TSLA Is Most Duration-Sensitive Mega-Cap
TSLA valuation depends on future cash flows. Drivers.
AI/Robotaxi optionality: TSLA bull case includes robotaxi network monetization (10-year payoff), Optimus humanoid robots (5-15 year payoff), Full Self-Driving licensing, energy storage growth, AI inference. Most enterprise value derives from cash flows projected 5-15 years ahead.
Multiple expansion: TSLA forward P/E approximately 80-100x (at $376 + ~$4 forward EPS). Compare to SPY 22x, QQQ 28x. Highest multiple among mega-caps reflects longest-duration cash flows.
Empirical sensitivity (pre-2024): 100bp 10Y rise associated with 15-25 percent TSLA decline (over 60-90 day windows). Highest of mega-caps.
2022 hiking cycle: 10Y rose 1.5 percent to 5.0 percent peak. TSLA fell 73 percent peak-to-trough (April 2022 to January 2023). Duration framework worked dramatically. Multiple compressed from 100x+ to 30x.
2023-2024 recovery: Robotaxi narrative emerged. NVDA AI capex catalyzed AI optionality narrative. TSLA recovered substantially.
2024-2026: AI/robotaxi narrative provides growth tailwind partially offsetting duration. Net effect: moderate vs other mega-caps.
The 2026 Underperformance
TSLA -14 percent YTD 2026 contrasts with NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL stable to positive. Drivers.
Q1 2026 delivery miss: 358K deliveries below expectations. Slowing demand growth concerns. China competition (BYD market share gains).
Robotaxi monetization timeline: launches advancing but monetization slow. Per-mile revenue limited. Fleet size small (~100s of cars vs Waymo 1000+).
Duration drag: 10Y at 4.31 percent pressures TSLA multiple. P/E compression from 80-100x to 60-80x range.
Regulatory concerns: NHTSA investigations into Autopilot/FSD. SEC scrutiny of executive comp.
Musk attention dilution: SpaceX, xAI, X, multiple Musk businesses competing for attention.
The practical implication: TSLA -14 percent YTD reflects multiple negatives. AI/robotaxi narrative not sufficient to offset Q1 delivery + duration drag. Watch Q2 2026 deliveries (early July) for inflection.
How TSLA and 10Y Diverge
10Y rising + TSLA falling: pure duration framework (current April 2026). Defensive positioning.
10Y falling + TSLA rallying: Fed-easing recovery + AI/robotaxi narrative.
10Y rising + TSLA rallying: AI/robotaxi narrative override (2023-2024 partial pattern).
10Y falling + TSLA falling: rare. Often signals demand weakness.
60-day correlation TSLA-10Y: -0.30 to -0.55 (negative). Strongest when AI/robotaxi narrative absent.
April 2026: 10Y elevated + TSLA underperforming. Duration framework reasserting.
How the Pair Performs Through Rate Cycles
2018-2019: 10Y 2.4% to 3.2% (Q4 2018) then 1.5% (mid-2019). TSLA -25% Q4 2018. 2019 stable.
2020 COVID: 10Y to 0.5%. TSLA -60% peak-to-trough flash crash then +740% through 2021 (zero rates + retail mania).
2022 hiking: 10Y 1.5% to 5.0%. TSLA -73% peak-to-trough. Classical duration with extreme magnitude.
2023 AI awakening: TSLA +200% from January 2023 lows.
2024-2025: TSLA volatile. Multiple expansions/compressions on robotaxi narrative.
2026 YTD: TSLA -14% (underperforming peers).
Pattern: TSLA highest beta to rate cycles. Most duration-sensitive mega-cap.
How the Pair Performs in Stress
2018 Q4: TSLA -25%. Classical duration.
2020 COVID: TSLA -60% peak-to-trough then +740% through 2021.
2022 hiking: TSLA -73% peak-to-trough. Extreme stress.
2023 SVB: TSLA -10%.
2024-2026: TSLA cycles 30-50% drawdowns and recoveries.
2026 Iran war: TSLA modest weakness.
Pattern: TSLA most volatile mega-cap. Extreme drawdowns and recoveries.
Volatility and Trading
TSLA realized volatility approximately 50-80% annualized. Highest among mega-caps. Beta to SPY ~2.0-2.5.
60-day correlation TSLA-10Y: -0.30 to -0.55 (negative).
TSLA exposure: TSLA stock, TSLY (single-stock leveraged), TSLL (3x leveraged). 10Y exposure: TLT or futures.
Most actionable: Quarterly delivery numbers (early month following quarter end - April for Q1 2026); robotaxi expansion announcements; FSD progress; Optimus updates; Musk-related volatility events.
Reading the Pair as a Trading Tool
10Y rising + TSLA falling: duration framework reasserting (April 2026). Defensive.
10Y falling + TSLA rallying: bull regime + AI/robotaxi.
April 2026 setup: 10Y 4.31% + TSLA -14% YTD. Duration drag dominant. Watch for: Q2 2026 delivery recovery; robotaxi expansion success; 10Y compression below 4%.
How TSLA-vs-10Y Compares
Vs NVDA-vs-10Y: NVDA AI capex pure. TSLA AI/robotaxi optionality + auto cyclical.
Vs QQQ/10Y: QQQ aggregate. TSLA single-name extreme version.
Vs SMH/10Y: SMH semis. TSLA different exposure.
April 2026: 10Y 4.31% + TSLA -14% YTD. Duration drag dominant.
Forward View: Watch Q2 Deliveries and Robotaxi
TSLA $376 (April 2026, -14% YTD). 10Y 4.31%. Q1 2026 deliveries 358K (+6% YoY but missed). Robotaxi expanded Austin/Dallas/Houston. Cybercab production starting.
Forward: Q2 2026 deliveries (early July). Robotaxi monetization. Cybercab production scale. FSD subscriber growth. 10Y trajectory.
Risks: continued delivery miss; robotaxi regulatory setback; competition; Musk distraction; recession affecting EV demand.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How 10Y Treasury Yield has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Tesla (TSLA). Computed from 1,242 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, 10Y Treasury Yield falls 0.02% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.50%. 125 qualifying events; 10Y Treasury Yield closed positive in 44% of them.
Following these triggers, 10Y Treasury Yield rises 0.09% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.50%. 125 qualifying events; 10Y Treasury Yield closed positive in 46% of them.
Past behavior in the tails is descriptive, not predictive. Mean response is the simple arithmetic mean of compounded 5-day forward returns following each trigger event; baseline is the unconditional mean across the full sample window. Edge measures the gap between the two.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are TSLA and the 10Y Treasury yield?+
TSLA $376 (April 2026, -14% YTD). Underperforming all megacap peers in 2026. 10Y yield 4.31% April 2026. Market cap ~$1.2 trillion. Q1 2026 deliveries 358,023 vehicles (+6% YoY but missed expectations). Q1 2026 revenue +16% YoY (AI/Robotaxi ramp). Robotaxi launched Austin Jan 22 2026, expanded Dallas/Houston (April 2026), preparing Phoenix/Miami/Orlando/Tampa/Las Vegas. Cybercab pilot production began Gigafactory Texas April 2026 (first unit Feb 18 2026). Wall Street consensus Hold; 12-month target $398-$406 (modest upside). TSLA forward P/E ~80-100x (vs SPY 22x, QQQ 28x). TSLA realized volatility ~50-80% annualized; beta to SPY ~2.0-2.5.
Why is TSLA most duration-sensitive mega-cap?+
Valuation depends on future cash flows. AI/Robotaxi optionality: bull case includes robotaxi network monetization (10-year payoff), Optimus humanoid robots (5-15 year payoff), Full Self-Driving licensing, energy storage growth, AI inference. Most enterprise value 5-15 years ahead. Multiple expansion: TSLA forward P/E ~80-100x. Highest multiple among mega-caps reflects longest-duration cash flows. Pre-2024 100bp 10Y rise = 15-25% TSLA decline (highest of mega-caps). 2022 hiking 10Y 1.5% to 5.0% peak: TSLA -73% peak-to-trough April 2022 to January 2023. Multiple compressed 100x+ to 30x. 2023-2024 recovery on Robotaxi narrative + AI capex.
Why has TSLA underperformed in 2026?+
Multiple drivers. Q1 2026 delivery miss: 358K below expectations. Slowing demand. China competition (BYD market share gains). Robotaxi monetization timeline: launches advancing but monetization slow. Per-mile revenue limited. Fleet size small (~100s vs Waymo 1000+). Duration drag: 10Y 4.31% pressures TSLA multiple. P/E compression 80-100x to 60-80x. Regulatory: NHTSA investigations into Autopilot/FSD. SEC scrutiny exec comp. Musk attention dilution: SpaceX, xAI, X competing for attention. TSLA -14% YTD reflects multiple negatives. AI/robotaxi narrative not sufficient to offset Q1 delivery + duration drag.
How does the pair perform through rate cycles?+
2018-2019: 10Y 2.4% to 3.2% (Q4 2018) then 1.5% (mid-2019). TSLA -25% Q4 2018. 2020 COVID: 10Y to 0.5%. TSLA -60% peak-to-trough flash crash then +740% through 2021 (zero rates + retail mania). 2022 hiking: 10Y 1.5% to 5.0%. TSLA -73% peak-to-trough. Classical duration with extreme magnitude. 2023 AI awakening: TSLA +200% from January 2023 lows. 2024-2025: TSLA volatile. Multiple expansions/compressions on robotaxi narrative. 2026 YTD: TSLA -14% (underperforming peers). Pattern: TSLA highest beta to rate cycles. Most duration-sensitive mega-cap.
How does the pair perform in stress?+
2018 Q4: TSLA -25%. Classical duration. 2020 COVID: TSLA -60% peak-to-trough then +740% through 2021. 2022 hiking: TSLA -73% peak-to-trough. Extreme stress. 2023 SVB: TSLA -10%. 2024-2026: TSLA cycles 30-50% drawdowns and recoveries. 2026 Iran war: TSLA modest weakness. Pattern: TSLA most volatile mega-cap. Extreme drawdowns and recoveries.
How is the pair traded?+
TSLA realized volatility ~50-80% annualized. Highest among mega-caps. Beta to SPY ~2.0-2.5. 60-day correlation TSLA-10Y -0.30 to -0.55 (negative). TSLA exposure: TSLA stock, TSLY (single-stock leveraged), TSLL (3x leveraged). 10Y exposure: TLT or futures. Most actionable: Quarterly delivery numbers (early month following quarter end); robotaxi expansion announcements; FSD progress; Optimus updates; Musk-related volatility events.
How is the pair used for trading?+
10Y rising + TSLA falling: duration framework reasserting (April 2026). Defensive. 10Y falling + TSLA rallying: bull regime + AI/robotaxi narrative. April 2026: 10Y 4.31% + TSLA -14% YTD. Duration drag dominant. Watch for Q2 2026 delivery recovery; robotaxi expansion success; 10Y compression below 4%; Cybercab production scale; FSD subscriber growth.
How does TSLA compare to other mega-caps?+
Vs NVDA-vs-10Y: NVDA AI capex pure. TSLA AI/robotaxi optionality + auto cyclical. Different drivers. Vs QQQ/10Y: QQQ aggregate of mega-caps. TSLA single-name extreme version of QQQ. Vs SMH/10Y: SMH semis. TSLA different exposure (auto + AI services). April 2026: TSLA -14% YTD vs NVDA stable, MSFT/META positive. TSLA underperforming all megacap peers. Duration drag dominant. Auto + robotaxi cyclical pressures override AI/optionality benefits.
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