Dollar ETF vs Gold ETF
The 90-day rolling correlation between UUP (Invesco DB US Dollar Bullish Fund) and GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) has averaged minus 0.44 since UUP's February 2007 inception, with the inverse relationship driven mechanically through the dollar-priced-gold channel and structurally through real-rate dynamics. UUP closed at 27.10 on April 30, 2026, down 7 percent year-to-date as the dollar weakened on Fed cuts and Iran-related growth concerns.
Also known as: US Dollar Bull (UUP) (ETF_UUP, dollar ETF) · Gold ETF (GLD) (ETF_GLD, gold ETF)
Why This Comparison Matters
The 90-day rolling correlation between UUP (Invesco DB US Dollar Bullish Fund) and GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) has averaged minus 0.44 since UUP's February 2007 inception, with the inverse relationship driven mechanically through the dollar-priced-gold channel and structurally through real-rate dynamics. UUP closed at 27.10 on April 30, 2026, down 7 percent year-to-date as the dollar weakened on Fed cuts and Iran-related growth concerns. GLD closed at 472.50, up 36 percent year-to-date as central-bank buying and Iran tail-risk drove gold to the January 28, 2026 record of 560.22. The UUP-GLD relationship has been one of the most reliable inverse pairs in liquid US ETF markets, but multiple regime breaks since 2022 have compressed the correlation and shifted the level around which the spread oscillates.
What UUP and GLD actually hold
UUP is the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund, launched February 20, 2007. It holds long futures positions in the ICE Dollar Index (DXY): euro 57.6 percent, JPY 13.6 percent, GBP 11.9 percent, CAD 9.1 percent, SEK 4.2 percent, CHF 3.6 percent. UUP rebalances daily to track the index. AUM was approximately 425 million as of April 2026, with average daily volume around 1 to 2 million shares. The expense ratio is 0.78 percent, high relative to broad equity ETFs but typical for futures-based commodity and currency products. UUP carries K-1 tax reporting because it is structured as a commodity pool.
GLD is the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, launched November 18, 2004. It holds physical gold bullion in HSBC vaults in London, with shares representing 0.09405 ounces of gold each as of April 2026 due to the cumulative 0.40 percent annual expense ratio. GLD AUM was approximately 105 billion as of April 2026, the largest gold ETF globally and the largest commodity ETF by AUM. Average daily volume runs 8 to 12 million shares. GLD does not generate K-1s but carries collectibles tax treatment for long-term holders (28 percent maximum federal rate).
Multi-horizon correlation since 2007
Rolling correlation analysis shows the UUP-GLD relationship is consistently negative but variable. Across the full 2007 to 2026 sample, the correlation in monthly returns averages minus 0.46. On 90-day rolling daily-return windows, the correlation averages minus 0.44, ranges from minus 0.81 (most-inverse, May 2010 European debt crisis window) to plus 0.32 (most-positive, July 2022 simultaneous safe-haven rally), and spends roughly 78 percent of windows in negative territory.
On 1-year windows (260 trading days), correlation averages minus 0.55 and ranges from minus 0.78 to minus 0.05; the relationship is more reliable at this horizon. On 5-year windows, correlation averages minus 0.62, with the lowest 5-year reading at minus 0.78 (window ending 2014, capturing the dollar-strength and gold-weakness regime). The April 2026 90-day rolling correlation reads minus 0.51, slightly more negative than the long-run average and consistent with the mechanical pricing channel dominating over idiosyncratic factors during the current Fed-cut and Iran-tail-risk environment.
How dollar strength transmits to gold
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How Gold ETF (GLD) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in US Dollar Bull (UUP). Computed from 1,289 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, Gold ETF (GLD) rises 0.34% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.37%. 129 qualifying events; Gold ETF (GLD) closed positive in 59% of them.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the historical UUP-GLD correlation?+
The 90-day rolling correlation since UUP's February 2007 inception averages minus 0.44 and ranges from minus 0.81 (May 2010 European debt crisis) to plus 0.32 (July 2022 simultaneous safe-haven rally). On 1-year windows the correlation averages minus 0.55, and on 5-year windows averages minus 0.62. The relationship is more reliable at longer horizons because short-term episodes can break the inverse link briefly before reverting.
Why does UUP move opposite to GLD?+
Two channels: the mechanical priced-in-dollars channel (gold trades globally in USD, so dollar appreciation makes gold more expensive in foreign currency terms and dampens physical demand) and the real-rate channel (dollar strength typically reflects higher US real yields, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold). The mechanical effect is roughly 0.3 to 0.5 percent gold decline per 1 percent dollar rise; the real-rate effect is roughly 0.5 to 1.0 percent gold change per 25 basis point real-yield move.
When has UUP and GLD moved together?+
Three notable episodes: (1) September to November 2008, when both benefited from safe-haven demand during the GFC; (2) July to August 2022, when Russian gas concerns drove simultaneous dollar safe-haven and gold safe-haven flows; (3) brief windows during the August 2024 yen-carry unwind. Each episode reset the level around which the spread oscillated for several months before mean-reverting back to the inverse pattern.
What are the structural differences between UUP and GLD?
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.