VIX vs S&P 500
The VIX is the 30-day implied volatility of S&P 500 index options, widely known as Wall Street's fear gauge. As of April 24, 2026, the VIX trades near 18.84 (below the symbolic 19 line) while SPY sits near $708 at all-time highs.
Also known as: VIX (fear index, volatility index, CBOE VIX) · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (ETF_SPY, S&P 500, SPX, SP500)
Why This Comparison Matters
The VIX is the 30-day implied volatility of S&P 500 index options, widely known as Wall Street's fear gauge. As of April 24, 2026, the VIX trades near 18.84 (below the symbolic 19 line) while SPY sits near $708 at all-time highs. The VIX peaked at 31.05 on March 27, 2026 during the Strait of Hormuz closure and has fallen 28 percent since as equities have recovered. The VIX-SPY inverse correlation typically runs at negative 0.7 to negative 0.8 on daily moves and is one of the most reliable short-horizon relationships in the macro tape.
What the VIX Is and How It's Calculated
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) measures the 30-day forward-looking implied volatility of the S&P 500 index, expressed in annualized percentage terms. It is calculated from the mid-quotes of all liquid SPX index options with roughly 30 days to expiration using a variance-swap methodology that has been in place since 2003 (the current formula, after an earlier methodology was used from 1993 to 2002).
A VIX level of 18 implies the market expects the S&P 500 to move within approximately plus or minus 5.2 percent over the next month (18 divided by the square root of 12 months). A VIX of 40 implies an expected range of roughly plus or minus 11.5 percent over the next month. The VIX is forward-looking: it reflects the prices options traders are paying for near-term protection, not what has already happened to stocks. That distinguishes it from realized volatility, which measures historical price movement.
The Classic Inverse Relationship
The VIX and SPY have one of the tightest inverse correlations in finance. Daily moves in the VIX and SPY are negatively correlated at approximately minus 0.7 to minus 0.8, which means they move in opposite directions roughly 80 percent of the time on any given trading day. The mechanism is direct: when equity prices fall, portfolio managers and hedgers buy put options to protect against further declines, which raises option prices and raises implied volatility.
The asymmetry matters. On up days, the VIX typically falls by a smaller magnitude than it rises on down days of equivalent size. This is the "volatility smile" of tail risk pricing: markets charge more for protection on the downside than they do for upside participation. A 1 percent decline in SPY often moves the VIX up 1.5 to 2 points, while a 1 percent rally only moves the VIX down 0.7 to 1 point. Over time this asymmetry means VIX tends to drift lower during extended bull markets and jump sharply during declines.
VIX Levels and What They Mean
A VIX reading below 12 is historically rare and is associated with complacency regimes, typically late in bull markets before a correction. A VIX between 12 and 20 is the typical calm-market range covering most of any given year in uptrending equity markets. A VIX between 20 and 30 reflects ordinary nervousness, usually around Fed decisions, earnings, or geopolitical events. A VIX between 30 and 50 is a stress regime with active portfolio hedging. A VIX above 50 is extreme crisis territory and has only been reached during the 2008 financial crisis, the March 2020 COVID crash, and briefly during the August 5, 2024 yen carry unwind.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in VIX. Computed from 1,249 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rises 0.14% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.25%. 125 qualifying events; S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed positive in 58% of them.
90-Day Statistics
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a high VIX vs low VIX?+
The VIX historically averages near 19.5 (median 17.5). Below 12 is considered very low and typically signals complacency late in bull cycles. 12 to 20 is normal calm-market range. 20 to 30 reflects elevated nervousness around Fed decisions or earnings. 30 to 50 is stress territory with active hedging. Above 50 is extreme crisis, reached only during the 2008 financial crisis, March 2020 COVID crash, and briefly during the August 5, 2024 yen carry unwind. A level of 18 (today's reading) is essentially neutral.
Why does VIX usually move inversely to SPY?+
When stocks fall, institutional investors and hedgers buy put options to protect against further declines. Higher demand for puts raises option prices, which raises implied volatility, which raises the VIX. The relationship is mechanical and driven by the asymmetric demand for tail protection. On up days the reverse happens but more weakly, because investors demand less upside protection than downside protection. Daily correlation between VIX and SPY changes is approximately negative 0.7 to negative 0.8, among the tightest inverse relationships in markets.
What was the highest VIX level ever?+
The highest VIX close was 82.69 on March 16, 2020 during the COVID crash. The pre-2020 record was 80.86 on November 20, 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis. Intraday highs: approximately 89.5 on October 24, 2008, and approximately 85.5 on March 18, 2020. The August 5, 2024 yen carry unwind saw an intraday spike to approximately 66, the third time since 1990 the VIX touched 60 intraday, though it closed much lower at 38.6. Outside these three episodes (GFC, COVID, Yen-unwind), the VIX has not exceeded 60 since 1990.
Related Comparisons
Explore Across Convex
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.