Consumer Staples (XLP) vs 10Y Treasury Yield
XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund) tracks consumer staples sector of S&P 500. Top holdings April 2026: Procter & Gamble (PG) ~14 percent, Costco (COST) ~12 percent, Coca-Cola (KO) ~9 percent, Walmart (WMT) ~9 percent, PepsiCo (PEP) ~6 percent.
Also known as: Consumer Staples (XLP) (ETF_XLP, consumer staples) · 10Y Treasury Yield (10Y yield, 10 year treasury, TNX)
Why This Comparison Matters
XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund) tracks consumer staples sector of S&P 500. Top holdings April 2026: Procter & Gamble (PG) ~14 percent, Costco (COST) ~12 percent, Coca-Cola (KO) ~9 percent, Walmart (WMT) ~9 percent, PepsiCo (PEP) ~6 percent. The 10-year Treasury yield (FRED DGS10) sits at 4.31 percent. XLP has bond-proxy characteristics (high dividends ~2.5 percent, stable cash flows) but also inflation pass-through (pricing power). Pre-2024 XLP had moderate -0.30 to -0.45 correlation with 10Y. The 2024-2026 era saw XLP underperform: defensive characteristics overshadowed by AI capex tech rally + GLP-1 drug impact (Costco beat, but P&G/PepsiCo facing headwinds from Ozempic/Wegovy reducing consumer food/beverage demand).
The April 2026 Configuration
XLP price approximately $80 (April 2026, near recent highs). 10Y yield 4.31 percent. Top holdings: P&G ~14%, Costco ~12%, Coca-Cola ~9%, Walmart ~9%, PepsiCo ~6%. Combined top 5 ~50 percent. Dividend yield 2.5 percent.
XLP composition: food & beverage (PEP, KO, MDLZ, KHC, MO) ~30%; household products (PG, CL, CHD) ~25%; personal care (EL, KMB) ~15%; retail (COST, WMT) ~21% (Costco + Walmart); food retail (KR) ~3%; tobacco (PM, MO) ~6%.
XLP performance 2024-2026: lagged SPY substantially. 2024 +14% vs SPY +25%. 2025 modest. 2026 stable. Defensive characteristics didn't pay during AI capex boom. GLP-1 drug impact: Walmart/Costco grocery same-store-sales growth slower; P&G/PEP/KO facing volume headwinds.
Forward-looking: Costco continues fundamental outperformance (membership model + value proposition). Walmart e-commerce + grocery dominance. P&G/Coca-Cola facing GLP-1 transition. XLP sensitivity to 10Y modest but defensive bid emerges during equity volatility.
Why XLP Has Mixed Rate Sensitivity
XLP rate sensitivity less direct than XLU/XLRE due to multiple offsetting drivers.
Bond proxy framework: high dividends (~2.5%), stable cash flows, predictable demand. Should move inversely to 10Y. 100bp 10Y rise typically associated with 3-5% XLP decline (vs 8-12% XLU/XLRE).
Inflation passthrough: pricing power offsets duration drag. Companies pass cost increases to consumers. P&G, Coca-Cola, Costco have pricing power. Inflation surge regimes (2021-2022) initially compressed XLP multiples but earnings recovered.
Defensive bid: during equity volatility, defensive sector flows compress XLP risk premium. Net effect can be positive even with rising rates.
GLP-1 disruption: Ozempic/Wegovy reducing consumer food/beverage demand. Specific to XLP holdings (PEP, KO, MDLZ, KHC). New 2024-2026 era headwind not historical.
The practical implication: XLP modestly inversely correlated to 10Y with multiple offsetting factors. Pre-2024 -0.30 to -0.45 correlation. 2024-2026 era weaker correlation due to GLP-1 specific impacts.
How XLP Holdings Differ in Rate Sensitivity
XLP holdings vary in rate sensitivity. Costco (COST 12%): premium retailer, no rate sensitivity directly, growth-style multiples. Walmart (WMT 9%): mass retailer, modest rate sensitivity through real estate financing. P&G (PG 14%): consumer staples, defensive, dividend yield 2.4%. KO (9%): same. PEP (6%): same.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How 10Y Treasury Yield has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Consumer Staples (XLP). Computed from 1,237 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, 10Y Treasury Yield rises 0.71% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.63%. 123 qualifying events; 10Y Treasury Yield closed positive in 53% of them.
90-Day Statistics
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are XLP and the 10Y Treasury yield?+
XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund) tracks consumer staples sector of S&P 500. Top holdings April 2026: Procter & Gamble ~14%, Costco ~12%, Coca-Cola ~9%, Walmart ~9%, PepsiCo ~6% (top 5 ~50%). XLP price ~$80 April 2026. Dividend yield 2.5%. 10Y Treasury yield 4.31%. XLP composition: food & beverage (PEP, KO, MDLZ, KHC, MO) ~30%; household products (PG, CL, CHD) ~25%; personal care (EL, KMB) ~15%; retail (COST, WMT) ~21%; food retail (KR) ~3%; tobacco (PM, MO) ~6%. XLP 2024 +14% vs SPY +25%. Costco +30% past 12 months; Walmart +20%; PG/KO/PEP modest gains.
Why does XLP have mixed rate sensitivity?+
Multiple offsetting drivers. Bond proxy framework: high dividends ~2.5%, stable cash flows. 100bp 10Y rise typically associated with 3-5% XLP decline (vs 8-12% XLU/XLRE). Inflation passthrough: pricing power offsets duration drag. P&G, KO, Costco have pricing power. Defensive bid: during equity volatility, defensive sector flows compress XLP risk premium. GLP-1 disruption (Ozempic/Wegovy) reducing food/beverage demand for traditional staples. New 2024-2026 era headwind. XLP modestly inversely correlated to 10Y with multiple offsetting factors. Pre-2024 -0.30 to -0.45 correlation. 2024-2026 weaker due to GLP-1 specific impacts.
How do XLP holdings differ in rate sensitivity?+
COST 12%: premium retailer, no rate sensitivity directly, growth-style multiples. WMT 9%: mass retailer, modest rate sensitivity through real estate financing. PG 14%: defensive, dividend yield 2.4%. KO 9%: same. PEP 6%: same. Effective duration: COST/WMT lower (growth multiples + operational efficiency). PG/KO/PEP higher (dividend-yield-sensitive). April 2026: COST +30% past 12 months (membership growth + e-commerce). WMT +20% (grocery + e-commerce). PG/KO/PEP modest gains (single-digit). Compositional shift: retail (COST+WMT) outperforming traditional staples. Traditional staples facing GLP-1 + valuation headwinds.
Related Comparisons
Explore Across Convex
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.