Walmart (WMT) vs Consumer Staples (XLP)
Walmart closed at $131.94 in April 2026 with a market cap of $1.036 trillion, the only US retailer in the trillion-dollar club. XLP holds approximately 40 stocks led by Walmart at 11.85 percent and Costco at 9.62 percent (combined approximately 21.5 percent of the fund).
Also known as: Walmart (WMT) (STK_WMT, Walmart) · Consumer Staples (XLP) (ETF_XLP, consumer staples)
Why This Comparison Matters
Walmart closed at $131.94 in April 2026 with a market cap of $1.036 trillion, the only US retailer in the trillion-dollar club. XLP holds approximately 40 stocks led by Walmart at 11.85 percent and Costco at 9.62 percent (combined approximately 21.5 percent of the fund). XLP's other major holdings include Procter and Gamble, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Philip Morris, Mondelez, Costco, and Kroger. The pair captures the rotation between low-price omnichannel retail (Walmart) and the broader staples complex of brand-name CPG and beverage names. Walmart fiscal 2026 revenue is on track for approximately $713 billion, the largest of any US company. The pair has favored Walmart through 2024-2026 as consumer trade-down behavior has accelerated.
Walmart's Position in XLP
Walmart at 11.85 percent of XLP is the single largest holding. Costco at 9.62 percent is second. Combined, the two warehouse and discount retailers represent 21.5 percent of XLP, more than Procter and Gamble at 9.5 percent and Coca-Cola at 7 percent. The concentration in retail giants reflects the GICS classification: discount retailers and warehouse clubs are categorized as consumer staples (rather than consumer discretionary) because they sell primarily essential and recurring goods.
The WMT/XLP ratio currently trades at approximately 1.66 (WMT $131.94 / XLP $79.50 estimated). The ratio has gained roughly 25 percent over the past three years as Walmart has outperformed the broader staples complex, driven by consumer trade-down, e-commerce gains, and Walmart's grocery-share expansion. Above 1.75 indicates extended Walmart outperformance; below 1.45 indicates broad staples leading.
Why Walmart Has Outperformed
Three structural drivers have favored Walmart over the broader staples complex through 2024-2026. First, consumer trade-down: middle-income households (incomes $75-150K) shifted grocery and basic-goods spending to Walmart as inflation bit through 2022-2024. Walmart added approximately 6 to 8 million higher-income households as customers, pushing grocery market share from 22 percent to 26 percent. The trade-down has stuck even as inflation moderated.
Second, e-commerce and Walmart Connect ad business: Walmart e-commerce grew 30 percent in fiscal 2025, reaching approximately $100 billion in revenue. Walmart Connect (the digital advertising business) generated approximately $4 billion in 2025, growing 50+ percent annually with margin profile similar to Meta and Google ads. The high-margin advertising layer is structurally accretive to Walmart earnings versus traditional CPG or grocery competitors.
Third, supply chain efficiency: Walmart's capex investment in automation, robotics, and supply chain ($14 billion annually) has driven steady margin expansion versus CPG competitors that have lost pricing power.
Walmart's Fiscal 2026 Setup
Walmart fiscal year ends January 31. Fiscal 2026 (ending January 2027) is on track for approximately $713 billion in revenue, up 4 to 5 percent from fiscal 2025. Operating margin expansion is expected to add 30 to 50 basis points, driven by Walmart Connect advertising scaling, e-commerce profitability convergence with stores, and continued supply chain efficiency.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How Consumer Staples (XLP) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Walmart (WMT). Computed from 1,289 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, Consumer Staples (XLP) rises 0.07% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.08%. 128 qualifying events; Consumer Staples (XLP) closed positive in 50% of them.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Walmart's current price and market cap?+
Walmart closed at $131.94 in April 2026 with a market cap of $1.036 trillion, the only US retailer in the trillion-dollar club. WMT/XLP ratio is approximately 1.66 (WMT $131.94 / XLP $79.50). Walmart fiscal 2026 (ending January 2027) revenue is on track for approximately $713 billion, the largest of any US company. The stock trades at approximately 38x trailing earnings reflecting scale, grocery dominance, and Walmart Connect ad platform. Year-to-date 2026, WMT gained ~6 percent versus XLP +2 percent.
What is Walmart's weight in XLP?+
Walmart is the largest XLP holding at 11.85 percent. Costco is second at 9.62 percent. Combined, the two warehouse/discount retailers represent 21.5 percent of XLP, more than Procter and Gamble at 9.5 percent or Coca-Cola at 7 percent. The concentration reflects GICS classification: discount retailers and warehouse clubs are categorized as consumer staples because they sell primarily essential and recurring goods. XLP holds approximately 40 stocks total. The WMT+COST 21.5 percent combined weight means a 10 percent move in either name produces approximately 1 percentage point of XLP move.
Why has WMT outperformed XLP?+
Three structural drivers. First, consumer trade-down: middle-income households shifted grocery spending to Walmart through 2022-2024 as inflation bit. Walmart added 6-8 million higher-income households as customers, pushing grocery market share from 22 percent to 26 percent. The trade-down has stuck even as inflation moderated. Second, Walmart Connect ad business: $4 billion 2025 revenue growing 50%+ annually with 75-80 percent margins. Third, supply chain investment: $14 billion annual capex in automation has driven margin expansion versus CPG competitors that have lost pricing power. Combined, WMT has gained ~25 percent over three years vs XLP non-retail components ~5-8 percent.
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