Economic Event · monthly
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM)Release: First business day of monthTime: 10:00 AM ET
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is a monthly survey of manufacturing executives covering new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Readings above 50 indicate expansion; below 50, contraction. Released at 10:00 AM ET on the first business day of each month.
ISM Manufacturing is a classic leading indicator for industrial activity, corporate earnings, and the business cycle. The new orders and employment subindices are particularly watched. Prolonged readings below 50 historically precede recessions; moves from below to above 50 signal cycle turns. The prices-paid subindex also functions as an inflation signal.
Most Recent Release
April 1, 2026→
ISM Mfg release
102.50
+0.68% vs prior
Why It Matters
ISM Manufacturing has correctly flagged every US recession with 6-12 months of lead time since 1960, though with false positives. Readings below 45 nearly always correspond to recession. The 2022-2023 sub-50 stretch is a notable recent exception, a manufacturing recession without a broader economic one.
Markets watch ISM for turning points. The move from below 50 to above 50 (and vice versa) often triggers sector rotation: industrial/cyclical outperformance when ISM crosses above 50; defensive rotation when below.
What to Watch For
- •Headline ISM vs 50 threshold
- •New orders subindex, forward indicator
- •Employment subindex
- •Prices paid, inflation signal
- •Supplier deliveries, supply chain signal
- •Inventories relative to new orders
Market Reaction Pattern
ISM beat with strong new orders: industrials/cyclicals outperform, copper/oil up, rates up. ISM miss with weak new orders: defensives outperform, rates down, dollar up.
Release Archive(36)
| Release Date | Value | Change vs Prior |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | 102.50 | +0.68% |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 101.81 | -0.29% |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 102.10 | +0.62% |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 101.47 | -0.05% |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 101.52 | +0.43% |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 101.08 | -0.12% |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 101.21 | -0.45% |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 101.67 | +0.04% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 101.62 | -0.26% |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 101.89 | +0.41% |
| Jun 1, 2025 | 101.48 | +0.51% |
| May 1, 2025 | 100.97 | -0.16% |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 101.13 | +0.09% |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 101.04 | -0.06% |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 101.10 | +1.03% |
| Jan 1, 2025 | 100.06 | -0.26% |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 100.33 | +1.04% |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 99.29 | -0.18% |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 99.47 | -0.34% |
| Sep 1, 2024 | 99.81 | -0.62% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | 100.43 | +0.46% |
| Jul 1, 2024 | 99.98 | -0.91% |
| Jun 1, 2024 | 100.89 | +0.03% |
| May 1, 2024 | 100.86 | +0.62% |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 100.24 | -0.21% |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 100.46 | +0.17% |
| Feb 1, 2024 | 100.28 | +1.07% |
| Jan 1, 2024 | 99.22 | -1.37% |
| Dec 1, 2023 | 100.60 | -0.26% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 100.86 | +0.39% |
| Oct 1, 2023 | 100.47 | -0.55% |
| Sep 1, 2023 | 101.02 | +0.18% |
| Aug 1, 2023 | 100.84 | -0.07% |
| Jul 1, 2023 | 100.91 | +0.79% |
| Jun 1, 2023 | 100.12 | -0.80% |
| May 1, 2023 | 100.93 | , |
Related Metrics
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monthly · ~10th-15th of month
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
monthly · First Friday
FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision
8x/year · Varies, 8 scheduled meetings per year
Producer Price Index (PPI)
monthly · Day before or after CPI
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
quarterly · ~1 month after quarter end (Advance), then 2 revisions
ISM Services PMI
monthly · Third business day of month
Retail Sales
monthly · ~15th of month
Initial Jobless Claims
weekly · Thursday
Get release-day analysis and market reaction framing before consensus forms.