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Economic Event · monthly

Retail Sales

Source: Census BureauRelease: ~15th of monthTime: 8:30 AM ET
The Census Bureau's Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services report captures consumer spending across retail categories. Released around the 15th of each month at 8:30 AM ET, covering the prior month. Retail sales are a direct read on consumer spending, which drives ~70% of US GDP. Markets watch headline sales, the "control group" (which excludes autos, gas, building materials, and food services, it feeds directly into GDP calculations), and category detail. A strong control group number is typically the most important signal.
Most Recent Release
April 1, 2026→
Retail Sales release
656,115
+0.47% vs prior

Why It Matters

Retail sales surprises can swing consumer-discretionary earnings expectations and drive large moves in XLY relative to XLP. The report takes on added importance during recession debates, a resilient consumer can sustain the expansion even amid weakening manufacturing.

What to Watch For

  • •Headline retail sales month-over-month
  • •Control group month-over-month
  • •Revisions to prior month
  • •Category detail: online, autos, restaurants
  • •Inflation-adjusted (real) retail sales

Market Reaction Pattern

Strong control group: consumer discretionary up, rates up. Weak control group: defensives up, rates down, recession pricing increases.

Release Archive(36)

Release DateValueChange vs Prior
Apr 1, 2026656,115+0.47%
Mar 1, 2026653,040+1.87%
Feb 1, 2026641,038+0.96%
Jan 1, 2026634,949+0.02%
Dec 1, 2025634,830+0.06%
Nov 1, 2025634,477+0.50%
Oct 1, 2025631,346-0.17%
Sep 1, 2025632,395+0.04%
Aug 1, 2025632,149+0.54%
Jul 1, 2025628,747+0.74%
Jun 1, 2025624,146+0.99%
May 1, 2025618,037-0.88%
Apr 1, 2025623,521-0.26%
Mar 1, 2025625,121+1.35%
Feb 1, 2025616,775+0.26%
Jan 1, 2025615,145-1.06%
Dec 1, 2024621,713+0.87%
Nov 1, 2024616,344+0.58%
Oct 1, 2024612,772+0.66%
Sep 1, 2024608,774+0.86%
Aug 1, 2024603,601-0.37%
Jul 1, 2024605,814+0.97%
Jun 1, 2024599,979-0.07%
May 1, 2024600,372+0.79%
Apr 1, 2024595,676-0.05%
Mar 1, 2024595,969+0.47%
Feb 1, 2024593,206+0.72%
Jan 1, 2024588,944-0.89%
Dec 1, 2023594,256+0.12%
Nov 1, 2023593,567-0.33%
Oct 1, 2023595,517-0.57%
Sep 1, 2023598,956+0.63%
Aug 1, 2023595,191+1.01%
Jul 1, 2023589,257+0.10%
Jun 1, 2023588,670+0.41%
May 1, 2023586,286,

Related Metrics

Primary
Retail Sales (ex Food Svc)
Consumer Sentiment (Michigan)
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
10Y Treasury Yield

Other Economic Events

Consumer Price Index (CPI)
monthly · ~10th-15th of month
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
monthly · First Friday
FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision
8x/year · Varies, 8 scheduled meetings per year
Producer Price Index (PPI)
monthly · Day before or after CPI
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
quarterly · ~1 month after quarter end (Advance), then 2 revisions
ISM Manufacturing PMI
monthly · First business day of month
ISM Services PMI
monthly · Third business day of month
Initial Jobless Claims
weekly · Thursday

Get release-day analysis and market reaction framing before consensus forms.

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