CONVEX
Sign in
FX & Dollarmonthly

Trade Balance

US trade balance in goods and services, negative = trade deficit.

ByConvex Research Desk·Edited byBen Bleierⓘ·

The Trade Balance is currently -60,307, last updated .

-60,307
1W -4.38%1M -4.38%3M -4.38%
Updated 5h ago
All formats →
Statistical forecast 2026
Model-based central estimate, 68% and 95% confidence bands for Trade Balance, blended across current macro regimes.
View forecast →
Download dataCSV (full history)·JSON (latest)·View on FRED ↗
Start here
Check the chart
Range controls, thresholds, and trend.
Scan recent data
Latest observations and changes.
Continue analysis
Forecasts, comparisons, and related signals.

The dollar is the single largest macro variable for cross-asset returns. A rising dollar tightens global financial conditions, pressures emerging-market funding, and compresses commodity prices denominated in USD. Real effective exchange rates strip out inflation differentials, revealing whether a currency is genuinely appreciating or just keeping pace with domestic price levels.

Updated 5h ago

AI Analysis

May 14, 2026

COMPETING FORCES: BEARISH dollar — twin deficits (trade balance -$60.3bn), reserve diversification (foreign Treasury holdings flat at $9.2T despite rising issuance), structural overvaluation unwinding, geopolitical de-escalation reducing safe-haven demand.

Recent Data

Download CSV
DateValueChange
Mar 1, 2026-60,307-4.38%
Feb 1, 2026-57,777-5.67%
Jan 1, 2026-54,677+25.00%
Dec 1, 2025-72,900-30.12%
Nov 1, 2025-56,026-80.14%
Oct 1, 2025-31,102+36.74%
Sep 1, 2025-49,168+12.22%
Aug 1, 2025-56,011+24.55%
Jul 1, 2025-74,233-28.79%
Jun 1, 2025-57,637+18.32%
May 1, 2025-70,564-17.44%
Apr 1, 2025-60,084+55.77%
Mar 1, 2025-135,856-13.42%
Feb 1, 2025-119,780+6.66%
Jan 1, 2025-128,331-32.37%
Dec 1, 2024-96,948-21.56%
Nov 1, 2024-79,752-7.41%
Oct 1, 2024-74,250+8.89%
Sep 1, 2024-81,498-14.44%
Aug 1, 2024-71,214+9.44%
Jul 1, 2024-78,639-6.42%
Jun 1, 2024-73,892+0.76%
May 1, 2024-74,456-1.84%
Apr 1, 2024-73,110—

Related in FX & Dollar

Trade-Weighted Dollar (Broad)
Broad trade-weighted US dollar index, measures dollar strength vs major trading partners.
EM Dollar Index
Dollar index weighted by emerging-market trading partners.
EUR/USD
Euro to US dollar exchange rate.
JPY/USD
Japanese yen to US dollar exchange rate.

Explore Further

Forecast 2026
Trade Balance Outlook
Scenario-weighted forecast using scenario weighted approach.
Comparison
Trade Balance vs Nominal GDP
The US trade balance (FRED:NETEXP) ran -57.3 billion in February 2026, full-year 2025 at -901.5 billion. Real GDP grew 2...
Scenario
What Happens When the Trade Deficit Widens Sharply?
What happens when the US trade deficit surges? Dollar implications, tariff risk, manufacturing impact, and what it signa...
Category
All FX & Dollar Data
Trade-weighted dollar, major bilateral pairs, and BIS real effective exchange rates. Track dollar strength across every ...

Frequently Asked Questions

▶What is Trade Balance?
US trade balance in goods and services, negative = trade deficit.
▶How does Trade Balance relate to fx & dollar?
Trade Balance is part of the FX & Dollar category. The dollar is the single largest macro variable for cross-asset returns. A rising dollar tightens global financial conditions, pressures emerging-market funding, and compresses commodity prices denominated in USD. Real effective exchange rates strip out inflation differentials, revealing whether a currency is genuinely appreciating or just keeping pace with domestic price levels.
▶How often is Trade Balance updated?
Trade Balance is updated once per month when the releasing agency publishes new data. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
▶Where does Convex source Trade Balance data?
Convex sources Trade Balance data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
▶What can I do on the Trade Balance chart page?
The Trade Balance page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.
ShareXRedditLinkedInHN

Get daily macro analysis covering Trade Balance and related indicators delivered to your inbox.

Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated monthly. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.