Gold
145 mentions across Convex research, last mentioned
Recent Analysis Mentioning Gold
Gold traded near $4,700 in mid-May 2026 even after the inflation shock of 2022 faded and real yields stayed positive. The clean explanation is not a resurrected CPI trade. It is a reserve-allocation trade: central banks bought more than 1,000 tonnes a year from 2022 through 2024 and another 863 tonnes in 2025, changing who sets the marginal price.
macroRussia-China coordination, a drone over Israel, and Ukraine's German arms deal hit simultaneously.
GeopoliticsWhen the Treasury secretary tells the BBC growth sacrifice is acceptable, that's not reassurance, it's a ceiling on stimulus.
GeopoliticsWeekend signal accumulation arrives as markets are closed, Monday open is the first true verdict.
GeopoliticsDe-escalation signals threaten gold's $200-400/oz risk buffer and oil's conflict bid simultaneously
GeopoliticsThe April print doesn't trap the Fed further, it confirms the trap has no exit in sight.
MacroA kinetic war in the Middle East doesn't create new risks, it detonates the ones already loaded.
GeopoliticsA 42-day war pause reshuffles energy and safe-haven positioning, but ceasefire scope disputes cap the relief rally.
GeopoliticsA supply shock of this magnitude doesn't ask permission, it reprices everything, right now.
EnergyThe Abu Dhabi CEO's warning doesn't change our thesis, it confirms the worst-case energy scenario we've been pricing.
GeopoliticsMetrics Affected By Gold
Scenarios Involving Gold
What happens to stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates? Historical patterns and market playbooks for Fed easing cycles.
What happens when gold prices surge? The risk-off signal, inflation hedge demand, central bank buying, and portfolio implications explained.
What does gold at $3,000 mean for the global economy? Analysis of what drives gold to record highs and the implications for currencies, bonds, equities, and inflation.
Gold-silver ratio above 90 signals industrial or financial stress. What happens when gold dramatically outpaces silver, a classic late-cycle warning?
Copper-gold ratio collapse signals growth concerns and is often called "Dr. Copper's recession warning". What happens when the industrial-to-monetary metals ratio crashes?
What happens when 10-year real yields turn positive after a prolonged negative period? Impact on gold, tech stocks, and risk assets.
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