Germany (EWG) vs S&P 500
EWG (iShares MSCI Germany ETF, AUM $1.37-1.47 billion, expense ratio 0.49 percent) provides pure-play exposure to 50+ German stocks. The portfolio is dominated by giant and large caps with top-heavy concentration: top 2 holdings (typically SAP, Siemens) approximately 25 percent of portfolio.
Also known as: Germany / DAX (EWG) (ETF_EWG, DAX, Germany, GDAXI) · S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (ETF_SPY, S&P 500, SPX, SP500)
Why This Comparison Matters
EWG (iShares MSCI Germany ETF, AUM $1.37-1.47 billion, expense ratio 0.49 percent) provides pure-play exposure to 50+ German stocks. The portfolio is dominated by giant and large caps with top-heavy concentration: top 2 holdings (typically SAP, Siemens) approximately 25 percent of portfolio. SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) tracks the cap-weighted S&P 500 with current price $708. Germany is the most cyclical developed economy with heavy exports to China (~7 percent of German GDP) and deep automotive and industrials exposure. EWG outperformance signals global manufacturing cycle strength, China demand recovery, or weaker dollar. EWG underperformance typically signals US tech-led leadership, dollar strength, or German cyclical headwinds (auto exports, energy costs). The current EWG/SPY ratio of approximately 0.060 reflects 2024-2026 US tech dominance era.
The April 2026 Configuration
EWG closes April 23, 2026 at $42.32 with AUM $1.37-1.47 billion and expense ratio 0.49 percent. DAX index sits at 24,129 (off recent highs, lost ~2.3 percent for the week through April 25, 2026). SPY closes at $708. EWG/SPY ratio approximately 0.060.
DAX 2026 YTD performance has been mixed: Siemens Energy strongest performer +50 percent YTD on raised 2026 fiscal year guidance; SAP weakest at approximately -33 percent YTD despite Q1 2026 +17 percent profit growth and strong cloud business. The dispersion reflects sector-specific dynamics: industrial energy/grid stocks benefiting from EU electrification capex; software facing valuation reset.
The combined April 2026 reading: German equities pressured by mixed signals. Trade-barrier concerns weigh on automotive (Volkswagen, BMW) and industrial (Siemens) sectors. Banking and insurance (Deutsche Bank, Allianz) benefit from lower yields supporting funding costs. EWG/SPY ratio at 0.060 is near multi-year lows reflecting US tech-led rally producing 30+ percentage points of cumulative SPY outperformance over 2024-2026.
How Germany and the US Diverge
EWG and SPY have related but distinct drivers. SPY is dominated by mega-cap tech (top 7 names ~32 percent of index), broad earnings growth, AI-driven multiple expansion. EWG is dominated by industrial cyclicals (~33 percent of DAX), automotive (~10 percent), software (SAP ~10 percent), insurance/banking (~15 percent).
The practical implication: EWG and SPY diverge during specific macro regimes. Global manufacturing cycle expansion: EWG outperforms SPY substantially as German exports surge (China demand, US capex). Risk-on/multiple-expansion regimes (2024-2026): SPY outperforms EWG as US tech-led rally dominates and German auto faces structural headwinds. Inflation/energy-shock regimes: EWG underperforms SPY (Germany imports substantial energy, particularly post-Russia gas cutoff). Currency dynamics: dollar strength hurts EWG (returns translated from EUR to USD).
Correlation between EWG and SPY averages 0.65-0.80 in normal conditions. During global risk-off correlation rises to 0.85+. During US-specific events (election, US fiscal) correlation drops to 0.40-0.55. Beta of EWG to SPY: approximately 1.15-1.30 over 2020-2026 (EWG more volatile due to currency exposure plus cyclical sensitivity).
EWG Composition: Industrials Plus Top-2 Concentration
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in Germany / DAX (EWG). Computed from 1,281 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rises 0.05% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.23%. 128 qualifying events; S&P 500 ETF (SPY) closed positive in 55% of them.
90-Day Statistics
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are EWG and SPY?+
EWG (iShares MSCI Germany ETF, AUM $1.37-1.47 billion, expense ratio 0.49 percent) provides pure-play exposure to 50+ German stocks. Top-heavy: top 2 holdings (typically SAP, Siemens) approximately 25 percent of portfolio. EWG closes April 23 2026 at $42.32. SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF, AUM ~$560 billion) tracks cap-weighted S&P 500 with price $708. EWG/SPY ratio 0.060 (12-mo range 0.058-0.066; 5-yr 0.055-0.085; 10-yr 0.045-0.110). Germany most cyclical DM economy with heavy China exports (~7% of German GDP) and deep auto/industrials exposure.
How do EWG and SPY diverge?+
Distinct drivers despite both being equity ETFs. SPY dominated by mega-cap tech (top 7 names ~32% of index), AI multiple expansion. EWG dominated by industrial cyclicals (~33% of DAX), auto (~10%), software (SAP ~10%), insurance/banking (~15%). Global manufacturing cycle expansion: EWG outperforms substantially. Risk-on/multiple-expansion regimes (2024-2026): SPY outperforms EWG as tech-led rally dominates and German auto faces structural headwinds. Inflation/energy-shock regimes: EWG underperforms (Germany imports energy, post-Russia gas cutoff). Currency dynamics: dollar strength hurts EWG. Correlation 0.65-0.80 normal. Beta 1.15-1.30. Realized vol 18-25% vs SPY 13-18%.
What is EWG composition?+
EWG reflects DAX dominance plus broader MSCI Germany inclusion. Industrial sector ~33% (Siemens, Siemens Energy, Linde, Daimler Truck, MTU). Software ~12% (SAP dominant). Financials ~15% (Allianz, Deutsche Bank, Munich Re, Commerzbank). Consumer cyclicals ~12% (Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Adidas). Healthcare ~8% (Bayer, Fresenius, Siemens Healthineers). Materials ~8% (BASF, Henkel, Heidelberg Materials). Top-2 concentration (SAP + Siemens ~25% of portfolio) creates idiosyncratic risk. SAP cloud business drove 5-7pp of EWG performance in 2024-2026. Siemens Energy +50% YTD 2026 on electrification capex.
Related Comparisons
Explore Across Convex
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.