S&P 500 vs International Developed
SPY closed near $708 in mid-April 2026; EFA traded near $86 the same week. EFA tracks MSCI EAFE Index covering large and mid-cap developed markets excluding US and Canada (Europe ~65 percent, Japan ~22 percent, Australia ~7 percent, others ~6 percent).
Also known as: S&P 500 ETF (SPY) (ETF_SPY, S&P 500, SPX, SP500) · EAFE Developed (EFA) (ETF_EFA, EAFE, developed markets)
Why This Comparison Matters
SPY closed near $708 in mid-April 2026; EFA traded near $86 the same week. EFA tracks MSCI EAFE Index covering large and mid-cap developed markets excluding US and Canada (Europe ~65 percent, Japan ~22 percent, Australia ~7 percent, others ~6 percent). Year-to-date 2026, EFA has outpaced SPY (EFA +2.34 percent vs SPY -1.4 percent in early 2026 snapshots; both have recovered modestly). Trailing 12 months, EFA has gained 21.82 percent vs SPY 17.4 percent, an unusual 4.4 percentage point EFA outperformance. This is the first sustained reversal of US exceptionalism since 2017. The reversal reflects dollar weakness, rotation toward cheaper international valuations (EFA forward P/E ~14x vs SPY ~22x), and AI capex translation questions weighing on US mega-caps.
EFA Composition
EFA holds approximately 750 stocks across 21 developed market countries excluding US and Canada. Country weights April 2026: Japan ~22 percent, United Kingdom ~14 percent, France ~11 percent, Switzerland ~10 percent, Germany ~9 percent, Australia ~7 percent, Netherlands ~5 percent, Sweden ~3 percent, Hong Kong ~3 percent, Spain/Italy ~3 percent each, others smaller.
Top holdings: Novo Nordisk, ASML Holding, Nestle, Toyota, LVMH, Roche, AstraZeneca, SAP, Sony, Siemens, BHP Group, Mitsubishi UFJ. Sector weights: Financials ~20 percent (European banks, Australian banks, Mitsubishi UFJ), Industrials ~16 percent, Healthcare ~14 percent (Novo, Roche, AstraZeneca), Consumer Discretionary ~12 percent (LVMH, Toyota), Consumer Staples ~9 percent (Nestle), Tech ~9 percent (ASML, SAP, Sony - much lower than SPY 30%). EFA AUM approximately $50 billion. Expense ratio 0.32 percent.
The sector mix differs materially from SPY: EFA has more Financials and less Tech, reflecting the different industry composition of European, Japanese, and Australian markets versus US.
The 2010-2024 US Exceptionalism Era
From 2010 through October 2024, SPY gained approximately 350 percent while EFA gained approximately 80 percent (270 percentage point cumulative SPY outperformance). The "US exceptionalism" trade was one of the longest-sustained one-way trades in equity markets.
Drivers: First, US tech dominance: Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Nvidia all US-listed. International markets had no equivalent platform companies. Second, US shareholder return advantage: US companies have consistently higher buyback rates and shareholder returns than international peers. Third, US economic growth advantage: real GDP growth ~2.5 percent annualized vs Eurozone ~1 percent and Japan ~0.7 percent post-2010. Fourth, dollar strength: USD index gained roughly 30 percent 2010-2024.
The persistence was unprecedented. International equity allocations dropped from 40 percent of global equity allocations in 2009 to 30 percent in 2024 as flows chased US returns. The 2014 to 2024 period in particular saw zero meaningful EFA outperformance episodes.
The 2025-2026 Reversal
EFA has outperformed SPY by 4.4 percentage points over trailing 12 months and by 3.7 percentage points YTD 2026. Three drivers explain the reversal.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How EAFE Developed (EFA) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Computed from 1,285 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, EAFE Developed (EFA) rises 0.02% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.12%. 129 qualifying events; EAFE Developed (EFA) closed positive in 55% of them.
90-Day Statistics
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's in EFA?+
EFA tracks MSCI EAFE Index: ~750 stocks across 21 developed market countries excluding US and Canada. Country weights April 2026: Japan ~22%, UK ~14%, France ~11%, Switzerland ~10%, Germany ~9%, Australia ~7%, Netherlands ~5%. Top holdings: Novo Nordisk, ASML, Nestle, Toyota, LVMH, Roche, AstraZeneca, SAP, Sony, Siemens. Sector weights: Financials ~20%, Industrials ~16%, Healthcare ~14%, Consumer Discretionary ~12%, Consumer Staples ~9%, Tech ~9% (much lower than SPY 30%). EFA AUM ~$50 billion, expense ratio 0.32%. SPY expense 0.0945% (3x cheaper).
How big is the 2025-2026 EFA reversal?+
EFA has outperformed SPY by 4.4 percentage points over trailing 12 months (EFA +21.82% vs SPY +17.4%) and by 3.7 percentage points YTD 2026. This is the first sustained reversal of US exceptionalism since 2017. Three drivers: First, valuation gap (EFA forward P/E ~14x vs SPY ~22x, 8-turn gap at high end of historical range). Second, dollar weakness (USD index -6-8% YTD as Fed cuts reduce dollar yield advantage). Third, AI capex translation questions weighing on US mega-cap tech with no equivalent AI capex story to deteriorate in EFA.
What was the 2010-2024 US exceptionalism era?+
From 2010 through October 2024, SPY gained ~350% while EFA gained ~80% (270pp cumulative SPY outperformance, longest-sustained one-way trade in equity markets). Drivers: US tech dominance (no international equivalents to Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Nvidia), US shareholder return advantage (higher buyback rates), US economic growth advantage (real GDP ~2.5% annualized vs Eurozone ~1%, Japan ~0.7% post-2010), dollar strength (USD index +30% 2010-2024). International equity allocations dropped from 40% of global allocations in 2009 to 30% in 2024 as flows chased US returns.
Related Comparisons
Explore Across Convex
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.