Recession Indicators

Sahm Rule, yield curve inversions, leading indicators, and recession probability models. Track the signals that have preceded every U.S. recession.

Recession indicators distill complex economic dynamics into actionable signals. The Sahm Rule, triggered when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low, has a perfect track record since 1970. Combined with yield-curve inversions and declining leading indicators, these metrics help traders identify turning points before they become consensus.

Data as of May 18, 2026 · 7 metrics with live data

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

monthly

0.13%

Sahm Rule: 3-month average unemployment rise from 12-month low. Crossing 0.5% has signaled every recession since 1970.

Leading Index for US

monthly

1.72

Conference Board Leading Economic Index, composite of 10 leading indicators.

OECD Composite Leading Indicator

monthly

99.85

OECD CLI for the US, designed to anticipate turning points in the business cycle.

CVRP, Convex Recession Probability

daily

9.00

CVRP, Convex Recession Probability composite of yield curve, Sahm Rule, claims momentum, credit spreads & leading indicators. 0-100 scale.

Mfg New Orders (Nondefense ex Air)

monthly

82,960

Manufacturers' new orders excluding defense and aircraft, core capex proxy.

Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index

monthly

-1.03

Brave-Butters-Kelley dynamic factor leading index, a Chicago Fed academic composite of ~500 macro series.

US Recession Probability (Smoothed)

monthly

1.82%

Chauvet-Piger smoothed US recession probability from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model; probabilities above 80% reliably coincide with NBER-dated recessions.

Other Categories

Rates & Yield Curve Inflation Credit & Financial Stress Liquidity Labor Market Economic Activity Housing Commodities & Energy FX & Dollar Volatility Crypto Global Trade & Supply Chains Central Banks & Fed Operations Leading Indicators Financial Conditions Positioning & Sentiment Asia Pacific Europe Emerging Markets

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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated at varying frequencies. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.