Recession Indicatorsdaily
CVRP, Convex Recession Probability
CVRP, Convex Recession Probability composite of yield curve, Sahm Rule, claims momentum, credit spreads & leading indicators. 0-100 scale.
The CVRP, Convex Recession Probability is currently 9, last updated . Low recession probability (9/100), expansion dynamics intact
9
1W -25.00%1M +50.00%3M -30.77%
Updated 2h agoStatistical forecast 2026
Model-based central estimate, 68% and 95% confidence bands for CVRP, Convex Recession Probability, blended across current macro regimes.
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Recession indicators distill complex economic dynamics into actionable signals. The Sahm Rule, triggered when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low, has a perfect track record since 1970. Combined with yield-curve inversions and declining leading indicators, these metrics help traders identify turning points before they become consensus.
Updated 2h ago
Current Reading
Low recession probability (9/100), expansion dynamics intact
Recent Data
Download CSV| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | 9 | +0.00% |
| May 17, 2026 | 9 | -10.00% |
| May 16, 2026 | 10 | +0.00% |
| May 15, 2026 | 10 | -28.57% |
| May 14, 2026 | 14 | +16.67% |
| May 13, 2026 | 12 | +0.00% |
| May 12, 2026 | 12 | +0.00% |
| May 11, 2026 | 12 | +0.00% |
| May 10, 2026 | 12 | +0.00% |
| May 9, 2026 | 12 | +71.43% |
| May 8, 2026 | 7 | -30.00% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 10 | +0.00% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 10 | +0.00% |
| Apr 27, 2026 | 10 | +11.11% |
| Apr 26, 2026 | 9 | +28.57% |
| Apr 25, 2026 | 7 | +0.00% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 7 | +16.67% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | 6 | -14.29% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | 7 | +16.67% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | 6 | +0.00% |
| Apr 20, 2026 | 6 | +0.00% |
| Apr 19, 2026 | 6 | +0.00% |
| Apr 18, 2026 | 6 | -53.85% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | 13 | — |
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Frequently Asked Questions
▶What is CVRP, Convex Recession Probability?
CVRP, Convex Recession Probability composite of yield curve, Sahm Rule, claims momentum, credit spreads & leading indicators. 0-100 scale.
▶How does CVRP, Convex Recession Probability relate to recession indicators?
CVRP, Convex Recession Probability is part of the Recession Indicators category. Recession indicators distill complex economic dynamics into actionable signals. The Sahm Rule, triggered when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low, has a perfect track record since 1970. Combined with yield-curve inversions and declining leading indicators, these metrics help traders identify turning points before they become consensus.
▶How often is CVRP, Convex Recession Probability updated?
CVRP, Convex Recession Probability is updated once per day after market close. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
▶Where does Convex source CVRP, Convex Recession Probability data?
Convex sources CVRP, Convex Recession Probability data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
▶What can I do on the CVRP, Convex Recession Probability chart page?
The CVRP, Convex Recession Probability page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated daily. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.