CVRP, Convex Recession Probability

CVRP, Convex Recession Probability composite of yield curve, Sahm Rule, claims momentum, credit spreads & leading indicators. 0-100 scale.

CVRP, Convex Recession Probability is part of the Recession Indicators category. Recession indicators distill complex economic dynamics into actionable signals. The Sahm Rule, triggered when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low, has a perfect track record since 1970. Combined with yield-curve inversions and declining leading indicators, these metrics help traders identify turning points before they become consensus.

CVRP, Convex Recession Probability is updated once per day after market close. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.

Convex sources CVRP, Convex Recession Probability data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.

The CVRP, Convex Recession Probability page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.