Recession Indicatorsmonthly
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Sahm Rule: 3-month average unemployment rise from 12-month low. Crossing 0.5% has signaled every recession since 1970.
0.27%
1W +0.00%1M +0.00%3M -10.00%
Updated 36m agoUpdated just now
Recent Data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 0.27% | -10.00% |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 0.30% | -14.29% |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 0.35% | -18.60% |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 0.43% | — |
Related in Recession Indicators
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Manufacturers' new orders excluding defense and aircraft — core capex proxy.
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