Smart Money Positioning
Where are institutional and commercial players positioned right now? Live CFTC Commitments of Traders data, cross-asset divergence alerts, and macro regime context. Every number is data-driven — no editorial opinion.
Latest COT report: Oct 6, 2026
Data may be stale: CFTC positioning data. Values shown may not reflect current conditions.
Market Snapshot
Positioning Dashboard — CFTC Commitments of Traders
Net speculative = non-commercial long − short. Commercial net = commercial long − short. Percentile rank vs 52-week history. Conviction reflects positioning extremes — contrarian framing.
Commodities
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GoldGC | 210,335 | -244,527 | 396,109 | 44% | -8,297 | NEUTRAL— no extreme |
| Crude OilWTI | -12,446 | 9,763 | 752,148 | 42% | -6,706 | NEUTRAL— no extreme |
| CopperHG | 69,434 | -77,923 | 304,033 | 81% | -15,977 | CROWDED LONG— positioning elevated |
Equity Indices
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500ES | -155,651 | 45,342 | 1,949,777 | 94% | -10,695 | EXTREME LONG— contrarian short signal |
Currencies
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro FXEUR | -99,332 | 72,024 | 870,291 | 4% | -36,076 | EXTREME SHORT— contrarian long opportunity |
| Japanese YenJPY | 62,325 | -61,749 | 368,138 | 13% | +6,885 | CROWDED SHORT— positioning depressed |
Rates
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30Y TreasuryZB | -119,812 | 48,706 | 1,898,067 | 4% | +67,063 | EXTREME SHORT— contrarian long opportunity |
| 10Y TreasuryZN | -896,481 | 870,048 | 5,742,990 | 40% | +4,134 | NEUTRAL— no extreme |
Crypto
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BitcoinBTC | 2,540 | -3,006 | 21,432 | 92% | +75 | EXTREME LONG— contrarian short signal |
Divergence Alerts
Where smart money positioning conflicts with price action or cross-asset signals. Algorithmically detected, not editorial.
HY Spread rising while SPY rising
BEARISH equities on 2-6 week horizon
Dollar Index rising while EEM falling
EM equities likely to reprice toward dollar signal
Macro Regime Context
Positioning Implications
- ·CVRP at 28: low recession probability — growth-oriented positioning supported
- ·CRAI at 40: risk appetite neutral — no strong directional bias
- ·Yield curve flat (0.40%): transition signal — positioning shifts typically follow
- ·Real rates at 2.74%: restrictive — headwind for gold and growth stocks
Signal Timeline
No positioning extremes detected in the past 90 days. This is normal during range-bound markets.
Methodology
Positioning data sourced from CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy Futures-Only report), published weekly. Percentile ranks computed against 52-week rolling history. Conviction labels reflect positioning extremes: ≥90th or ≤10th percentile = extreme, ≥75th or ≤25th = crowded.
Divergence alerts are computed algorithmically using z-score analysis across correlated market pairs and CFTC positioning vs price action. No editorial judgment or AI-generated narratives are used on this page.
Regime context uses Convex Intelligence Indices (CVRP, CRAI, CNLI) plus yield curve and real rates data from FRED.