Smart Money Positioning
Where are institutional and commercial players positioned right now? Live CFTC Commitments of Traders data, cross-asset divergence alerts, and macro regime context. Every number is data-driven — no editorial opinion.
Latest COT report: Sep 8, 2026
Market Snapshot
Positioning Dashboard — CFTC Commitments of Traders
Net speculative = non-commercial long − short. Commercial net = commercial long − short. Percentile rank vs 52-week history. Conviction reflects positioning extremes — contrarian framing.
Commodities
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GoldGC | 231,960 | -270,274 | 411,227 | 44% | +3,836 | NEUTRAL— no extreme |
| Crude OilWTI | -24,784 | 21,513 | 753,433 | 42% | -133 | NEUTRAL— no extreme |
| CopperHG | 92,476 | -104,644 | 297,491 | 81% | +11,607 | CROWDED LONG— positioning elevated |
Equity Indices
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500ES | -93,933 | -28,610 | 2,107,535 | 94% | -4,562 | EXTREME LONG— contrarian short signal |
Currencies
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro FXEUR | -42,616 | 6,730 | 942,464 | 4% | -17,691 | EXTREME SHORT— contrarian long opportunity |
| Japanese YenJPY | 10,796 | -14,041 | 499,635 | 13% | +103,023 | CROWDED SHORT— positioning depressed |
Rates
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30Y TreasuryZB | -200,517 | 137,912 | 1,802,308 | 4% | -1,016 | EXTREME SHORT— contrarian long opportunity |
| 10Y TreasuryZN | -834,783 | 838,172 | 5,225,295 | 40% | +74,492 | NEUTRAL— no extreme |
Crypto
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BitcoinBTC | 1,524 | -2,061 | 21,083 | 92% | +821 | EXTREME LONG— contrarian short signal |
Divergence Alerts
Where smart money positioning conflicts with price action or cross-asset signals. Algorithmically detected, not editorial.
Net speculative at 92th percentile (crowded long) while Bitcoin price down -3.1%
Signal: CROWDED_REVERSAL · Implication: Speculative positioning extreme not confirmed by price action — long liquidation / reversal risk
10Y Yield rising while SPY rising
Equities ignoring rates, repricing risk ahead
IWM falling while SPY falling
Risk appetite narrowing, late-cycle breadth signal
Macro Regime Context
Positioning Implications
- ·CVRP at 12: low recession probability — growth-oriented positioning supported
- ·CRAI at 48: risk appetite neutral — no strong directional bias
- ·Yield curve flat (0.33%): transition signal — positioning shifts typically follow
- ·Real rates at 2.60%: restrictive — headwind for gold and growth stocks
Signal Timeline
Methodology
Positioning data sourced from CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy Futures-Only report), published weekly. Percentile ranks computed against 52-week rolling history. Conviction labels reflect positioning extremes: ≥90th or ≤10th percentile = extreme, ≥75th or ≤25th = crowded.
Divergence alerts are computed algorithmically using z-score analysis across correlated market pairs and CFTC positioning vs price action. No editorial judgment or AI-generated narratives are used on this page.
Regime context uses Convex Intelligence Indices (CVRP, CRAI, CNLI) plus yield curve and real rates data from FRED.