Smart Money Positioning
Where are institutional and commercial players positioned right now? Live CFTC Commitments of Traders data, cross-asset divergence alerts, and macro regime context. Every number is data-driven — no editorial opinion.
Latest COT report: Jul 21, 2026
Market Snapshot
Positioning Dashboard — CFTC Commitments of Traders
Net speculative = non-commercial long − short. Commercial net = commercial long − short. Percentile rank vs 52-week history. Conviction reflects positioning extremes — contrarian framing.
Commodities
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GoldGC | 183,910 | -213,199 | 383,368 | 44% | -2,772 | NEUTRAL— no extreme |
| Crude OilWTI | 12,514 | -15,856 | 770,415 | 42% | -4,340 | NEUTRAL— no extreme |
| CopperHG | 73,977 | -82,112 | 270,048 | 81% | +9,592 | CROWDED LONG— positioning elevated |
Equity Indices
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500ES | -20,998 | -99,512 | 1,958,349 | 94% | +21,567 | EXTREME LONG— contrarian short signal |
Currencies
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro FXEUR | -41,338 | 17,975 | 800,061 | 4% | -28,733 | EXTREME SHORT— contrarian long opportunity |
| Japanese YenJPY | -152,125 | 154,898 | 423,796 | 13% | -29,462 | CROWDED SHORT— positioning depressed |
Rates
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30Y TreasuryZB | -186,790 | 92,427 | 1,842,498 | 4% | -7,734 | EXTREME SHORT— contrarian long opportunity |
| 10Y TreasuryZN | -879,706 | 890,118 | 5,272,703 | 40% | -48,031 | NEUTRAL— no extreme |
Crypto
| Contract | Net Spec | Comm Net | Open Int | 52w Pctile | Wk Δ | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BitcoinBTC | 3,054 | -2,986 | 20,527 | 92% | -37 | EXTREME LONG— contrarian short signal |
Divergence Alerts
Where smart money positioning conflicts with price action or cross-asset signals. Algorithmically detected, not editorial.
10Y Yield rising while SPY falling
Equities ignoring rates, repricing risk ahead
Macro Regime Context
Positioning Implications
- ·CVRP at 22: low recession probability — growth-oriented positioning supported
- ·CRAI at 61: risk appetite neutral — no strong directional bias
- ·Yield curve flat (0.27%): transition signal — positioning shifts typically follow
- ·Real rates at 2.43%: restrictive — headwind for gold and growth stocks
Signal Timeline
Methodology
Positioning data sourced from CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy Futures-Only report), published weekly. Percentile ranks computed against 52-week rolling history. Conviction labels reflect positioning extremes: ≥90th or ≤10th percentile = extreme, ≥75th or ≤25th = crowded.
Divergence alerts are computed algorithmically using z-score analysis across correlated market pairs and CFTC positioning vs price action. No editorial judgment or AI-generated narratives are used on this page.
Regime context uses Convex Intelligence Indices (CVRP, CRAI, CNLI) plus yield curve and real rates data from FRED.